{ "ticker": { "uuid": "241dfffa-436f-421d-9094-c4bce9bde83d", "symbol": "H4ZJ", "name": "HSBC MSCI World UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.882, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.616, "architecture_energy": 63.484, "architecture_maturity": 63.31, "architecture_confidence": 67.207, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.41, "rotation_up": 51.47, "upward_expansion": 80.67, "deceleration": 72.14, "rotation_down": 26.15, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.974166, 42.73291, 42.249495, 41.413419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.747, "trend_reference": 40.336414, "distance_from_trend": 0.059762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.11254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.411329, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108104, "excess_performance": 0.073431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253117, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019604, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024113, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065191, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108104, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.317493, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258317, "relative_activity": 1.197678, "balance": 2.317493, "dry_up": 1.284083, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015097, "annualized_volatility": 0.110323, "from_high_reference": -0.025709, "from_low_reference": 0.215478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.336414, "fair_value_reference": 34.11254, "structural_low": 36.352932, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.009765, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.004513, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.066455, "worst_return": -0.082982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027613, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.011552, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.100098, "worst_return": -0.153086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084735, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.043495, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.150782, "worst_return": -0.077342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 3.326679, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.018851, "energy": 59.558927, "activity_lines": [ 42.24408, 42.216025, 41.597894, 40.790582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.466999, "volume": 384903, "typical_volume": 231249.5, "trend": 40.033542, "fair_value": 33.890812, "relative_strength": 3.86501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.894381, "energy": 68.950202, "activity_lines": [ 42.62205, 42.456999, 41.868013, 41.022273 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 43.535999, "volume": 286055, "typical_volume": 223493.6, "trend": 40.186692, "fair_value": 34.005283, "relative_strength": 3.316485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.356983, "energy": 71.02767, "activity_lines": [ 42.959401, 42.681918, 42.113253, 41.248238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 42.747, "volume": 258317, "typical_volume": 215681.6, "trend": 40.336414, "fair_value": 34.11254, "relative_strength": 2.411329, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.615576, "energy": 63.484497, "activity_lines": [ 42.974166, 42.73291, 42.249495, 41.413419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }