{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24253f97-e172-4d33-af2c-f9095c2326d0", "symbol": "IIG", "name": "I&I Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 15.632, "architecture_energy": 22.423, "architecture_maturity": 30.276, "architecture_confidence": 60.127, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.33, "rotation_up": 58.97, "upward_expansion": 41.74, "deceleration": 33.11, "rotation_down": 21.13, "downward_expansion": 19.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.491333, 1.455273, 1.439048, 1.442215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 1.487667, "distance_from_trend": 0.00829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.343013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.71926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.863892, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.132948, "excess_performance": -0.325273, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.71926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05189, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.132948, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.766049, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 245400, "relative_activity": 0.124969, "balance": 3.766049, "dry_up": 1.495692, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078974, "annualized_volatility": 0.526382, "from_high_reference": -0.369748, "from_low_reference": 0.401869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.487667, "fair_value_reference": 5.343013, "structural_low": 1.11, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026455, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.016114, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.243421, "worst_return": -0.21978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.101907, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.136376, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.173228, "worst_return": -0.412698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.351648, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.358082, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.123529, "worst_return": -0.566102, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.621694, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.514891, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.524706, "worst_return": -0.718681, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-10-07", "end": "2022-11-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-11-25", "end": "2022-12-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-12-23", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.469565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.386503, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.197183, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.231707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18254, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2026-01-23", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 1.38, "volume": 99500, "typical_volume": 3073910.0, "trend": 1.468667, "fair_value": 5.861026, "relative_strength": -26.226866, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.757077, "energy": 41.342298, "activity_lines": [ 1.381333, 1.410182, 1.406333, 1.441871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.37, "volume": 534800, "typical_volume": 2327110.0, "trend": 1.469667, "fair_value": 5.773654, "relative_strength": -25.830503, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.344926, "energy": 45.070645, "activity_lines": [ 1.372667, 1.400909, 1.401571, 1.435505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.54, "volume": 8954200, "typical_volume": 2535155.0, "trend": 1.477333, "fair_value": 5.671346, "relative_strength": -16.291147, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.887755, "energy": 5.322336, "activity_lines": [ 1.428667, 1.421636, 1.415143, 1.440043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 2393000, "typical_volume": 2507490.0, "trend": 1.482333, "fair_value": 5.558526, "relative_strength": -17.454127, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.558111, "energy": 10.420468, "activity_lines": [ 1.459333, 1.435091, 1.424619, 1.441505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.48, "volume": 155700, "typical_volume": 2345715.0, "trend": 1.486667, "fair_value": 5.443013, "relative_strength": -16.634671, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.277018, "energy": 14.693067, "activity_lines": [ 1.476, 1.443455, 1.431095, 1.441355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 245400, "typical_volume": 1963690.0, "trend": 1.487667, "fair_value": 5.343013, "relative_strength": -13.863892, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.63234, "energy": 22.423023, "activity_lines": [ 1.491333, 1.455273, 1.439048, 1.442215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }