{ "ticker": { "uuid": "242814c3-a261-4bc9-82fa-a259d5dedfbe", "symbol": "000917", "name": "Hunan TV & Broadcast Intermediary Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.244, "architecture_energy": 52.641, "architecture_maturity": 90.124, "architecture_confidence": 66.585, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.18, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 21.21, "deceleration": 66.94, "rotation_down": 46.32, "downward_expansion": 71.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.825333, 6.783406, 7.315993, 7.973075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.18, "trend_reference": 8.942671, "distance_from_trend": -0.197108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.182985, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.81903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345488, "excess_performance": -0.352887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080098, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000416, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037542, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345488, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145656315, "relative_activity": 1.061593, "balance": 0.668521, "dry_up": 1.050236, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084372, "annualized_volatility": 0.438147, "from_high_reference": -0.503114, "from_low_reference": 0.165584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.942671, "fair_value_reference": 7.182985, "structural_low": 6.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.037311, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.007037, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.343949, "worst_return": -0.097701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029376, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02408, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.177273, "worst_return": -0.084715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.23313, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.150708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.467363, "worst_return": -0.142878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -77.159765, "energy": 76.345549, "activity_lines": [ 6.645528, 6.904686, 7.712614, 8.426645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.26, "volume": 126873422, "typical_volume": 142976138.7, "trend": 9.160004, "fair_value": 7.18225, "relative_strength": -29.091774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.837931, "energy": 68.632616, "activity_lines": [ 6.490483, 6.731229, 7.509328, 8.230882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.03, "volume": 146946839, "typical_volume": 138061168.3, "trend": 9.046004, "fair_value": 7.18096, "relative_strength": -18.788122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.745684, "energy": 62.794646, "activity_lines": [ 6.643275, 6.733954, 7.398517, 8.093462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.18, "volume": 145656315, "typical_volume": 137205367.3, "trend": 8.942671, "fair_value": 7.182985, "relative_strength": -20.81903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.244435, "energy": 52.640699, "activity_lines": [ 6.825333, 6.783406, 7.315993, 7.973075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }