{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2429d4b9-7707-43be-b70c-58955c38ba89", "symbol": "HAGA3", "name": "HAGA S/A Ind\u00fastria e Com\u00e9rcio", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.98, "architecture_energy": 15.301, "architecture_maturity": 27.344, "architecture_confidence": 57.866, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.96, "rotation_up": 39.25, "upward_expansion": 63.53, "deceleration": 60.86, "rotation_down": 24.21, "downward_expansion": 13.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.604, 2.593455, 2.612619, 2.574903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.53, "trend_reference": 2.453667, "distance_from_trend": 0.03111, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.342885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.052103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.345745, "excess_performance": 0.402793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03111, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123302, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.120521, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152507, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.345745, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.446975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3800, "relative_activity": 0.168179, "balance": 0.446975, "dry_up": 0.76123, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093645, "annualized_volatility": 0.664524, "from_high_reference": -0.219136, "from_low_reference": 0.697987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.453667, "fair_value_reference": 2.342885, "structural_low": 1.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004453, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003423, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.133705, "worst_return": -0.542741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.059649, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.143291, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188406, "worst_return": -0.632293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.157895, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.273284, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.542029, "worst_return": -0.533243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.161556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.214125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.157895, "worst_return": -0.165217, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033835, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077821, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122605, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079498, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046729, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.050761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020576, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058577, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.85, "volume": 23700, "typical_volume": 89740.0, "trend": 2.513667, "fair_value": 3.801538, "relative_strength": -1.000705, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.834677, "energy": 21.299066, 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2.365333, "fair_value": 2.351474, "relative_strength": 16.322995, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.222204, "energy": 14.04367, "activity_lines": [ 2.572667, 2.562909, 2.607286, 2.529656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.87, "volume": 14400, "typical_volume": 23500.0, "trend": 2.403667, "fair_value": 2.349231, "relative_strength": 25.869419, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.768387, "energy": 28.229641, "activity_lines": [ 2.660667, 2.616, 2.63319, 2.562215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.5, "volume": 29700, "typical_volume": 23410.0, "trend": 2.429667, "fair_value": 2.345256, "relative_strength": 7.419161, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.715435, "energy": 15.748896, "activity_lines": [ 2.627333, 2.600545, 2.621762, 2.56843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.53, "volume": 3800, "typical_volume": 22595.0, "trend": 2.453667, "fair_value": 2.342885, "relative_strength": 12.052103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.97995, "energy": 15.301147, "activity_lines": [ 2.604, 2.593455, 2.612619, 2.574903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }