{ "ticker": { "uuid": "242abb89-04da-479e-ae28-628ff4570cfc", "symbol": "VUZI", "name": "Vuzix Corp Cmn Stk", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.036, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.575, "architecture_energy": 29.25, "architecture_maturity": 7.908, "architecture_confidence": 63.253, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.19, "rotation_up": 17.14, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 57.6, "rotation_down": 60.75, "downward_expansion": 47.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.444, 2.577909, 2.907548, 2.868032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.69, "trend_reference": 2.828167, "distance_from_trend": -0.048854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.418547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.310845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071713, "excess_performance": -0.11574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048854, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015719, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112238, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098639, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.902487, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3396467, "relative_activity": 0.468103, "balance": 0.902487, "dry_up": 0.646708, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.281295, "annualized_volatility": 1.060067, "from_high_reference": -0.521352, "from_low_reference": 0.469945 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.828167, "fair_value_reference": 2.418547, "structural_low": 1.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018634, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017409, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.505155, "worst_return": -0.213573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.039337, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.64497, "worst_return": -0.424324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134576, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.361226, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.301775, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.025347, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.375225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.39645, "worst_return": -0.345756, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.505155, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.304714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.20297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.363229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.442159, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.431227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1673, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.327434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.466926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013274, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154506, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.2, "volume": 2390476, "typical_volume": 3878847.75, "trend": 4.547833, "fair_value": 8.623846, "relative_strength": -25.685292, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.416272, "energy": 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2.26, "volume": 6049415, "typical_volume": 7409528.75, "trend": 2.935167, "fair_value": 2.464701, "relative_strength": -27.974194, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.353757, "energy": 30.844179, "activity_lines": [ 2.566, 2.978182, 3.03919, 2.956645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.29, "volume": 4430080, "typical_volume": 7435411.2, "trend": 2.8995, "fair_value": 2.446431, "relative_strength": -25.619891, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.332527, "energy": 37.631864, "activity_lines": [ 2.422, 2.792455, 2.980738, 2.915022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.33, "volume": 4893579, "typical_volume": 7424059.15, "trend": 2.848833, "fair_value": 2.430598, "relative_strength": -24.692824, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.786296, "energy": 41.084392, "activity_lines": [ 2.359333, 2.626909, 2.927333, 2.87828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.69, "volume": 3396467, "typical_volume": 7255805.25, "trend": 2.828167, "fair_value": 2.418547, "relative_strength": -17.310845, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.575369, "energy": 29.250347, "activity_lines": [ 2.444, 2.577909, 2.907548, 2.868032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }