{ "ticker": { "uuid": "242f8289-59df-47ea-83ec-d4a8ad6636ba", "symbol": "QEM", "name": "QEM Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.46, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.579, "architecture_energy": 68.121, "architecture_maturity": 29.272, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.59, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 16.2, "deceleration": 38.98, "rotation_down": 58.63, "downward_expansion": 91.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.018133, 0.019145, 0.024724, 0.028508 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.022, "trend_reference": 0.0304, "distance_from_trend": -0.276316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.08717, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.747619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.139279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.466667, "excess_performance": 0.402961, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051903, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.747619, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.534134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.466667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.252774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6610793, "relative_activity": 1.001182, "balance": 0.252774, "dry_up": 0.378621, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.29021, "annualized_volatility": 1.576883, "from_high_reference": -0.614035, "from_low_reference": 0.692308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0304, "fair_value_reference": 0.08717, "structural_low": 0.013, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.030118, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.043586, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.402174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.171676, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.5625, "worst_return": -0.676923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.065478, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.72, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.292308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.594595, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.35066, "energy": 55.866194, "activity_lines": [ 0.020467, 0.023727, 0.030681, 0.03171 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.017, "volume": 1163028, "typical_volume": 7190469.85, "trend": 0.030167, "fair_value": 0.09083, "relative_strength": -38.975652, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.990475, "energy": 64.588569, "activity_lines": [ 0.0186, 0.021855, 0.028924, 0.030865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.017, "volume": 1008575, "typical_volume": 6634926.1, "trend": 0.0302, "fair_value": 0.089625, "relative_strength": -38.278126, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.367565, "energy": 75.25437, "activity_lines": [ 0.017467, 0.020418, 0.02729, 0.030015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.015, "volume": 1217724, "typical_volume": 6375777.65, "trend": 0.030167, "fair_value": 0.088407, "relative_strength": -46.22787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.317104, "energy": 81.334755, "activity_lines": [ 0.016467, 0.018982, 0.025619, 0.029034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.022, "volume": 6610793, "typical_volume": 6602988.15, "trend": 0.0304, "fair_value": 0.08717, "relative_strength": -23.139279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.579399, "energy": 68.12115, "activity_lines": [ 0.018133, 0.019145, 0.024724, 0.028508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }