{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24344160-837c-4750-940d-a29d24789cd7", "symbol": "ACARIX", "name": "Acarix AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.785, "architecture_energy": 46.92, "architecture_maturity": 27.866, "architecture_confidence": 95.789, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.23, "rotation_up": 19.83, "upward_expansion": 8.38, "deceleration": 43.12, "rotation_down": 56.39, "downward_expansion": 84.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.249033, 0.251573, 0.257398, 0.263667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.246, "trend_reference": 0.269017, "distance_from_trend": -0.085559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.283363, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.558365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121429, "excess_performance": -0.182923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039798, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131855, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00307, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225584, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029398, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.545202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2626895, "relative_activity": 0.654844, "balance": 0.545202, "dry_up": 0.70921, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073171, "annualized_volatility": 0.302627, "from_high_reference": -0.377215, "from_low_reference": 0.095768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.269017, "fair_value_reference": 0.283363, "structural_low": 0.232, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.00969, "positive_rate": 0.448276, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.016874, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 1.111716, "worst_return": -0.208188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.039435, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.092908, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.615039, "worst_return": -0.29345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014451, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033374, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.896701, "worst_return": -0.38012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -21.448613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.81706, "energy": 34.724994, "activity_lines": [ 0.255767, 0.256936, 0.265102, 0.269284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.252, "volume": 1978669, "typical_volume": 4427723.55, "trend": 0.271367, "fair_value": 0.28745, "relative_strength": -20.066193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.944027, "energy": 32.017668, "activity_lines": [ 0.254567, 0.255745, 0.263212, 0.267974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2465, "volume": 3456483, "typical_volume": 4226229.45, "trend": 0.27025, "fair_value": 0.286091, "relative_strength": -22.121827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.251741, "energy": 42.757469, "activity_lines": [ 0.2518, 0.253773, 0.26095, 0.26637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.252, "volume": 3317875, "typical_volume": 4144682.65, "trend": 0.26965, "fair_value": 0.284697, "relative_strength": -20.182171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.273509, "energy": 41.746697, "activity_lines": [ 0.251033, 0.253036, 0.259345, 0.265192 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.246, "volume": 2626895, "typical_volume": 4011481.05, "trend": 0.269017, "fair_value": 0.283363, "relative_strength": -22.558365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.785001, "energy": 46.919949, "activity_lines": [ 0.249033, 0.251573, 0.257398, 0.263667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }