{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2435ed05-4190-4f66-9d96-ddc39fe61f98", "symbol": "FN", "name": "FN Factory Outlet Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.201, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.651, "architecture_energy": 3.459, "architecture_maturity": 15.427, "architecture_confidence": 49.2, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.83, "rotation_up": 28.48, "upward_expansion": 26.19, "deceleration": 53.69, "rotation_down": 33.05, "downward_expansion": 27.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.468, 0.467273, 0.474905, 0.473269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.47, "trend_reference": 0.469, "distance_from_trend": 0.002132, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.880641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.466298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.307926, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.044444, "excess_performance": -0.147881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002132, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020877, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.466298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031633, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163079, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017187, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.044444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.521724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66200, "relative_activity": 0.14618, "balance": 0.521724, "dry_up": 0.234783, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065466, "annualized_volatility": 0.279715, "from_high_reference": -0.20339, "from_low_reference": 0.305556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.469, "fair_value_reference": 0.880641, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.02, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026439, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.207207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.145629, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.287037, "worst_return": -0.359551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.226131, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.283826, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.232992, "worst_return": -0.446602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.352941, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.407104, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.072938, "worst_return": -0.567568, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.198198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.278481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.58, "volume": 1146800, "typical_volume": 436295.0, "trend": 1.729667, "fair_value": 1.960177, "relative_strength": -11.232391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.450149, "energy": 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0.477381, 0.473892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.46, "volume": 258200, "typical_volume": 479160.0, "trend": 0.469667, "fair_value": 0.894936, "relative_strength": -20.895721, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.368699, "energy": 28.093265, "activity_lines": [ 0.462667, 0.468182, 0.476048, 0.473183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.47, "volume": 6700, "typical_volume": 456645.0, "trend": 0.469, "fair_value": 0.887756, "relative_strength": -17.499056, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.16984, "energy": 11.843073, "activity_lines": [ 0.465333, 0.467455, 0.475571, 0.473204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.47, "volume": 66200, "typical_volume": 452865.0, "trend": 0.469, "fair_value": 0.880641, "relative_strength": -16.307926, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.651392, "energy": 3.458927, "activity_lines": [ 0.468, 0.467273, 0.474905, 0.473269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }