{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24376e10-6398-48ba-9606-a21ac0336bd8", "symbol": "603535", "name": "Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.851, "architecture_energy": 55.721, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.707, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 28.17, "upward_expansion": 9.88, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 51.39, "downward_expansion": 83.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.176, 6.210182, 6.732857, 7.269527 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.34, "trend_reference": 8.078667, "distance_from_trend": -0.215217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.442918, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249075, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.044531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363454, "excess_performance": -0.32025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249075, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363454, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.797417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18742667, "relative_activity": 0.954317, "balance": 0.797417, "dry_up": 1.273429, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095244, "annualized_volatility": 0.292662, "from_high_reference": -0.536211, "from_low_reference": 0.110333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.078667, "fair_value_reference": 8.442918, "structural_low": 5.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.018569, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.016854, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.310494, "worst_return": -0.186567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00824, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.003795, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.332561, "worst_return": -0.257453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.071996, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003243, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.558517, "worst_return": -0.425474, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111233, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.225956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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68.724126, "activity_lines": [ 6.156667, 6.455455, 7.110762, 7.70028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.79, "volume": 25084075, "typical_volume": 18724222.25, "trend": 8.382, "fair_value": 8.457492, "relative_strength": -38.374999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.944507, "energy": 69.637631, "activity_lines": [ 6.014, 6.265455, 6.934429, 7.522839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.34, "volume": 32571041, "typical_volume": 19633447.55, "trend": 8.224333, "fair_value": 8.45082, "relative_strength": -32.005431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.037881, "energy": 62.92659, "activity_lines": [ 6.104667, 6.222364, 6.827143, 7.391097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.34, "volume": 18742667, "typical_volume": 19639873.75, "trend": 8.078667, "fair_value": 8.442918, "relative_strength": -33.044531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.850705, "energy": 55.721486, "activity_lines": [ 6.176, 6.210182, 6.732857, 7.269527 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }