{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "243b6ac1-2947-4a8d-abe7-7b316527d919",
    "symbol": "XSC",
    "name": "iShares Conservative Short Term Strategic Fixed Income ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 54.391,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -55.834,
    "architecture_energy": 60.158,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.276,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.753,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.69,
        "rotation_up": 12.19,
        "upward_expansion": 15.39,
        "deceleration": 34.88,
        "rotation_down": 67.29,
        "downward_expansion": 86.39
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        17.467188,
        17.494329,
        17.508146,
        17.51797
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 17.48,
    "trend_reference": 17.540622,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.003456,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 16.838,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038128,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -11.541538,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.007793,
    "excess_performance": -0.128215,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003456,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000648,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038128,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012197,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.115415,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002677,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007793,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.302452,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 600,
      "relative_activity": 0.126984,
      "balance": 0.302452,
      "dry_up": 1.703704,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.003681,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.025327,
      "from_high_reference": -0.014046,
      "from_low_reference": 0.010716
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 17.540622,
      "fair_value_reference": 16.838,
      "structural_low": 17.385029,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": -0.01051,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002457,
        "regime_survival": 0.8125,
        "best_return": 0.029076,
        "worst_return": -0.01995,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.013567,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007379,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.039318,
        "worst_return": -0.035959,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.004754,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028378,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.040305,
        "worst_return": -0.062834,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.015955,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011577,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.031828,
        "worst_return": -0.063737,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.01087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.042361,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.003924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.00357,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017965,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005962,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.020705,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.00246,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": 0.007573,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 17.550697,
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        "typical_volume": 11135.0,
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        "fair_value": 16.640127,
        "relative_strength": -11.537286,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -4.506941,
        "energy": 10.158307,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 10370.0,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 13.383131,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 9925.0,
        "trend": 17.557757,
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        "relative_strength": -11.273796,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.980776,
        "energy": 19.610115,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 17.429432,
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        "typical_volume": 10280.0,
        "trend": 17.553923,
        "fair_value": 16.678031,
        "relative_strength": -10.584894,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.846502,
        "energy": 43.237621,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 1700,
        "typical_volume": 10260.0,
        "trend": 17.551042,
        "fair_value": 16.691833,
        "relative_strength": -11.500728,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -51.96209,
        "energy": 44.6057,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 17.57691,
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        "typical_volume": 10150.0,
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        "fair_value": 16.705417,
        "relative_strength": -11.361866,
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 22.391212,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 600,
        "typical_volume": 9705.0,
        "trend": 17.551609,
        "fair_value": 16.718787,
        "relative_strength": -10.326408,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.299285,
        "energy": 22.324058,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8115.0,
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        "relative_strength": -11.034261,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": -10.5695,
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        "energy": 13.422496,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 17.527792,
        "volume": 0,
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        "fair_value": 16.759629,
        "relative_strength": -10.402422,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -10.174294,
        "energy": 11.127326,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.548574,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 17.567675,
        "volume": 500,
        "typical_volume": 4855.0,
        "trend": 17.552509,
        "fair_value": 16.773574,
        "relative_strength": -10.449358,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 15.842912,
        "energy": 16.961728,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 17.507851,
        "volume": 2100,
        "typical_volume": 4570.0,
        "trend": 17.552199,
        "fair_value": 16.786566,
        "relative_strength": -10.461106,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -19.358118,
        "energy": 10.420955,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.540275,
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          17.5392
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.507851,
        "volume": 2400,
        "typical_volume": 4130.0,
        "trend": 17.551075,
        "fair_value": 16.799445,
        "relative_strength": -9.938881,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -33.544673,
        "energy": 17.061167,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.527079,
          17.533351,
          17.525034,
          17.536339
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 17.428089,
        "volume": 25200,
        "typical_volume": 5010.0,
        "trend": 17.547618,
        "fair_value": 16.812006,
        "relative_strength": -10.195961,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.806506,
        "energy": 48.464362,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.49057,
          17.515628,
          17.516544,
          17.528404
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.450001,
        "volume": 4000,
        "typical_volume": 4995.0,
        "trend": 17.544113,
        "fair_value": 16.825049,
        "relative_strength": -9.261301,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.123522,
        "energy": 60.227585,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.471286,
          17.501913,
          17.510842,
          17.522106
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 17.48,
        "volume": 600,
        "typical_volume": 4725.0,
        "trend": 17.540622,
        "fair_value": 16.838,
        "relative_strength": -11.541538,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.83359,
        "energy": 60.158375,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.467188,
          17.494329,
          17.508146,
          17.51797
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}