{ "ticker": { "uuid": "243e1efa-a9ee-4a1a-8175-c58b6f928a24", "symbol": "300034", "name": "Gaona Aero Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.993, "architecture_energy": 73.841, "architecture_maturity": 24.718, "architecture_confidence": 85.728, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.7, "rotation_up": 11.01, "upward_expansion": 16.85, "deceleration": 38.17, "rotation_down": 71.52, "downward_expansion": 90.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.576, 16.198727, 17.299802, 18.017579 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.02, "trend_reference": 19.048287, "distance_from_trend": -0.158979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.548467, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.789698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.210837, "excess_performance": -0.218237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0871, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210837, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.849105, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51093351, "relative_activity": 0.804157, "balance": 0.849105, "dry_up": 0.926735, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095995, "annualized_volatility": 0.462386, "from_high_reference": -0.371518, "from_low_reference": 0.080972 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.048287, "fair_value_reference": 17.548467, "structural_low": 14.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.022393, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006164, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.288927, "worst_return": -0.185578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.053584, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040752, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.200852, "worst_return": -0.234174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.111659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.436802, "worst_return": -0.200381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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17.813337, "relative_strength": -15.602479, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.65748, "energy": 61.353051, "activity_lines": [ 17.782667, 18.276115, 18.766769, 19.234919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.68, "volume": 82859556, "typical_volume": 85362320.0, "trend": 19.534953, "fair_value": 17.774502, "relative_strength": -17.756605, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.876809, "energy": 56.479514, "activity_lines": [ 17.402667, 17.89466, 18.513823, 19.050213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.91, "volume": 67949152, "typical_volume": 78282719.75, "trend": 19.432287, "fair_value": 17.715739, "relative_strength": -18.782845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.53607, "energy": 76.501566, "activity_lines": [ 16.512, 17.244665, 18.110687, 18.751829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.96, "volume": 62868809, "typical_volume": 70288167.1, "trend": 19.30162, "fair_value": 17.65456, "relative_strength": -18.391181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.946971, "energy": 80.787197, "activity_lines": [ 15.817333, 16.710086, 17.757265, 18.463294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.54, "volume": 53614921, "typical_volume": 65588811.95, "trend": 19.166953, "fair_value": 17.600575, "relative_strength": -13.45318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.271146, "energy": 78.194097, "activity_lines": [ 15.565333, 16.370411, 17.49451, 18.220609 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.02, "volume": 51093351, "typical_volume": 63536549.95, "trend": 19.048287, "fair_value": 17.548467, "relative_strength": -14.789698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.993296, "energy": 73.841229, "activity_lines": [ 15.576, 16.198727, 17.299802, 18.017579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }