{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24435abb-ea8e-42c0-97f8-e2aab3bd0213", "symbol": "KNB", "name": "Koonenberry Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.207, "architecture_energy": 27.874, "architecture_maturity": 40.218, "architecture_confidence": 60.817, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.41, "rotation_up": 23.78, "upward_expansion": 7.45, "deceleration": 59.29, "rotation_down": 42.73, "downward_expansion": 63.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0224, 0.0224, 0.023607, 0.024274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.026017, "distance_from_trend": -0.077514, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.032486, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261228, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.882181, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.206563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077514, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194946, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.261228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038334, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098867, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.353116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4951539, "relative_activity": 1.081357, "balance": 2.353116, "dry_up": 0.950722, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144231, "annualized_volatility": 0.664499, "from_high_reference": -0.606557, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.026017, "fair_value_reference": 0.032486, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.06125, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.066639, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": -0.484848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.190357, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.182948, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.473684, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.426667, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.39435, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.69697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.255319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043478, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.04, "volume": 480533, "typical_volume": 143164.7, "trend": 0.047767, "fair_value": 0.087788, "relative_strength": -32.953634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.233856, "energy": 67.807004, "activity_lines": [ 0.021933, 0.023682, 0.02444, 0.025706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.021, "volume": 1406078, "typical_volume": 5193276.55, "trend": 0.02815, "fair_value": 0.032865, "relative_strength": -39.877888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.877369, "energy": 68.094744, "activity_lines": [ 0.021333, 0.023055, 0.024081, 0.025202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.022, "volume": 4359647, "typical_volume": 4811204.55, "trend": 0.027483, "fair_value": 0.032794, "relative_strength": -35.826141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.967013, "energy": 56.365609, "activity_lines": [ 0.0214, 0.022655, 0.02385, 0.024805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.022, "volume": 6696183, "typical_volume": 4636282.75, "trend": 0.02675, "fair_value": 0.032653, "relative_strength": -36.33793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.627069, "energy": 45.290052, "activity_lines": [ 0.0216, 0.022273, 0.023629, 0.024452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 4951539, "typical_volume": 4579005.1, "trend": 0.026017, "fair_value": 0.032486, "relative_strength": -31.882181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.207138, "energy": 27.873789, "activity_lines": [ 0.0224, 0.0224, 0.023607, 0.024274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }