{ "ticker": { "uuid": "244c6f57-b3d1-4a26-8229-b8e3fe9addb7", "symbol": "DIS", "name": "Distil Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.873, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.719, "architecture_energy": 7.499, "architecture_maturity": 30.822, "architecture_confidence": 59.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.74, "rotation_up": 24.15, "upward_expansion": 27.1, "deceleration": 42.73, "rotation_down": 24.8, "downward_expansion": 44.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00061, 0.000608, 0.000552, 0.000591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.0006, "trend_reference": 0.000706, "distance_from_trend": -0.150142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.002536, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.763397, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -47.346058, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.551235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150142, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.222752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.763397, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099402, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.473461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.249613, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.430188, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71630200, "relative_activity": 1.480188, "balance": 2.430188, "dry_up": 0.700179, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.367949, "annualized_volatility": 1.200283, "from_high_reference": -0.8, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000706, "fair_value_reference": 0.002536, "structural_low": 0.0003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.110672, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.119982, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.237578, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.258258, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.064516, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.40681, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.449678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.173913, "worst_return": -0.688889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.55, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.654804, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.413043, "worst_return": -0.62963, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.726316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.678571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.480769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.635593, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.341463, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.00575, "volume": 120744, "typical_volume": 1617133.95, "trend": 0.00515, "fair_value": 0.013907, "relative_strength": -11.94314, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.969087, "energy": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.200845, "energy": 11.938549, "activity_lines": [ 0.000627, 0.000589, 0.000534, 0.00062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0006, "volume": 12444718, "typical_volume": 45491389.6, "trend": 0.000754, "fair_value": 0.002602, "relative_strength": -49.161898, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.37376, "energy": 10.987733, "activity_lines": [ 0.000623, 0.000598, 0.000538, 0.000609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0006, "volume": 10703133, "typical_volume": 45099029.9, "trend": 0.00073, "fair_value": 0.002569, "relative_strength": -48.538639, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.686687, "energy": 9.583927, "activity_lines": [ 0.000617, 0.000605, 0.000544, 0.000599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0006, "volume": 71630200, "typical_volume": 48392625.85, "trend": 0.000706, "fair_value": 0.002536, "relative_strength": -47.346058, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.719494, "energy": 7.498865, "activity_lines": [ 0.00061, 0.000608, 0.000552, 0.000591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }