{ "ticker": { "uuid": "244e8219-87c0-4141-b0ba-d8de68267e14", "symbol": "ONEF", "name": "Oneflow AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.104, "architecture_energy": 25.879, "architecture_maturity": 12.642, "architecture_confidence": 58.379, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.74, "rotation_up": 58.34, "upward_expansion": 35.46, "deceleration": 35.42, "rotation_down": 15.3, "downward_expansion": 19.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.453333, 17.771818, 17.450238, 17.602043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.5, "trend_reference": 18.225, "distance_from_trend": 0.069959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.500962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.453603, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105505, "excess_performance": -0.166999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069959, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315813, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109956, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138281, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105505, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.99058, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1293, "relative_activity": 0.04302, "balance": 0.99058, "dry_up": 0.159944, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094872, "annualized_volatility": 0.357191, "from_high_reference": -0.396285, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.225, "fair_value_reference": 28.500962, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.019305, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.071881, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.19697, "worst_return": -0.165354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.06052, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012589, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.356364, "worst_return": -0.122744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036367, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.352727, "worst_return": -0.202, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 36026.1, "trend": 19.413333, "fair_value": 29.090385, "relative_strength": -34.229675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.940255, "energy": 45.686866, "activity_lines": [ 16.693334, 16.857273, 17.11, 17.878925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.0, "volume": 12378, "typical_volume": 33818.8, "trend": 19.123333, "fair_value": 28.967949, "relative_strength": -31.80055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.06957, "energy": 32.659957, "activity_lines": [ 16.786667, 16.870909, 17.067619, 17.723226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.0, "volume": 9601, "typical_volume": 33911.1, "trend": 18.843333, "fair_value": 28.858974, "relative_strength": -30.358365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.412306, "energy": 22.505979, "activity_lines": [ 16.88, 16.873636, 17.039286, 17.586237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.9, "volume": 3737, "typical_volume": 30980.75, "trend": 18.586667, "fair_value": 28.744872, "relative_strength": -26.98849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.166643, "energy": 12.018356, "activity_lines": [ 17.26, 17.045455, 17.105, 17.525376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.65, "volume": 4598, "typical_volume": 30356.75, "trend": 18.375, "fair_value": 28.610577, "relative_strength": -24.139711, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.746258, "energy": 8.753513, "activity_lines": [ 17.786667, 17.344546, 17.237857, 17.529462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.5, "volume": 1293, "typical_volume": 30055.9, "trend": 18.225, "fair_value": 28.500962, "relative_strength": -21.453603, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.104406, "energy": 25.879229, "activity_lines": [ 18.453333, 17.771818, 17.450238, 17.602043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }