{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24598732-1537-4171-b684-18f1b805a4c6", "symbol": "MWOB", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Information Technology Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.991, "architecture_energy": 63.371, "architecture_maturity": 50.708, "architecture_confidence": 62.834, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.56, "rotation_up": 51.11, "upward_expansion": 78.74, "deceleration": 71.33, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 10.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.994334, 29.722819, 29.333524, 28.32042 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.540001, "trend_reference": 27.106167, "distance_from_trend": 0.163573, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.046681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.416687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.28998, "excess_performance": 0.207096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.163573, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.368527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068594, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.084167, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059816, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.28998, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.232619, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.183117, "balance": 0.232619, "dry_up": 2.824574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02873, "annualized_volatility": 0.227678, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.400844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.106167, "fair_value_reference": 23.046681, "structural_low": 22.514999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007024, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.01934, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.060168, "worst_return": -0.025905, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.049717, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049717, "worst_return": -0.049717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.198089, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.142869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198089, "worst_return": 0.198089, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045473, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109563, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00962, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060168, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 18.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 18.664, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 19.356001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.613258, "energy": 45.621899, "activity_lines": [ 29.37, 29.533728, 28.690762, 27.707118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.365, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 118.8, "trend": 26.797167, "fair_value": 22.920175, "relative_strength": 2.654892, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.764775, "energy": 47.166355, "activity_lines": [ 29.356667, 29.483364, 28.871929, 27.880828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.975, "volume": 3035, "typical_volume": 270.55, "trend": 26.904167, "fair_value": 22.972826, "relative_strength": 1.13967, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.199535, "energy": 40.477205, "activity_lines": [ 29.258667, 29.364, 28.992595, 28.021334 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.540001, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 273.05, "trend": 27.106167, "fair_value": 23.046681, "relative_strength": 8.416687, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.991207, "energy": 63.371135, "activity_lines": [ 29.994334, 29.722819, 29.333524, 28.32042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }