{ "ticker": { "uuid": "245fba99-6251-4e32-8666-14b7c1a48052", "symbol": "EPIS-B", "name": "Episurf Medical AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.387, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.544, "architecture_energy": 24.44, "architecture_maturity": 34.561, "architecture_confidence": 41.075, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.34, "rotation_up": 17.13, "upward_expansion": 16.46, "deceleration": 58.71, "rotation_down": 58.67, "downward_expansion": 46.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.06068, 0.067709, 0.084162, 0.080167 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0639, "trend_reference": 0.071423, "distance_from_trend": -0.105334, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.308284, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.792724, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.981547, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.228846, "excess_performance": 0.167352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105334, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.792724, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028483, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029815, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210137, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.228846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.078714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75280234, "relative_activity": 0.454826, "balance": 4.078714, "dry_up": 0.496102, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.674732, "annualized_volatility": 1.598196, "from_high_reference": -0.779655, "from_low_reference": 1.608163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.071423, "fair_value_reference": 0.308284, "structural_low": 0.0336, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.169776, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.11411, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12069, "worst_return": -0.350057, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.288346, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.203878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.240484, "worst_return": -0.336207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.433498, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.356999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.433498, "worst_return": -0.433498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.0577, "volume": 95836826, "typical_volume": 190423385.65, "trend": 0.06887, "fair_value": 0.330484, "relative_strength": -1.839031, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.325021, "energy": 23.948174, "activity_lines": [ 0.068353, 0.088665, 0.091117, 0.081995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.057, "volume": 58160609, "typical_volume": 178404584.25, "trend": 0.069823, "fair_value": 0.323093, "relative_strength": -4.275953, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.483846, "energy": 25.563311, "activity_lines": [ 0.062773, 0.079442, 0.088535, 0.081229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0599, "volume": 99170438, "typical_volume": 177512553.25, "trend": 0.070437, "fair_value": 0.315708, "relative_strength": -1.121486, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.129533, "energy": 26.368675, "activity_lines": [ 0.060133, 0.072251, 0.086194, 0.080589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0639, "volume": 75280234, "typical_volume": 165514526.65, "trend": 0.071423, "fair_value": 0.308284, "relative_strength": 2.981547, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.544016, "energy": 24.440285, "activity_lines": [ 0.06068, 0.067709, 0.084162, 0.080167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }