{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24665ade-4af7-4bb6-99d1-3734636174a5", "symbol": "DIA", "name": "State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.187, "architecture_energy": 67.583, "architecture_maturity": 56.702, "architecture_confidence": 75.316, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.5, "rotation_up": 54.63, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 70.78, "rotation_down": 28.19, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 9131.792708, 9105.856498, 8954.490323, 8818.786307 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9242.889648, "trend_reference": 8683.61665, "distance_from_trend": 0.064406, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7844.019994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.455624, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.073896, "excess_performance": 0.128563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064406, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014012, "read": "Rising" 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8166.619629, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.013391, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.009552, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.088133, "worst_return": -0.058149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023653, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.018992, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.26365, "worst_return": -0.086593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01739, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065766, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.431356, "worst_return": -0.122927, 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9041.656706, 8928.008097, 8735.162456, 8662.553956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9181.874023, "volume": 963, "typical_volume": 650.65, "trend": 8630.535824, "fair_value": 7763.130199, "relative_strength": 3.991428, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.567206, "energy": 92.323273, "activity_lines": [ 9103.96862, 8992.409801, 8790.464853, 8698.98323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9128.0, "volume": 289, "typical_volume": 661.0, "trend": 8646.147998, "fair_value": 7783.384212, "relative_strength": 3.312184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.971823, "energy": 87.333594, "activity_lines": [ 9132.76556, 9037.544869, 8837.439851, 8731.077693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9040.669922, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 583.45, "trend": 8657.850342, "fair_value": 7803.514091, "relative_strength": 2.846954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.422309, "energy": 78.314818, "activity_lines": [ 9110.996289, 9055.008416, 8872.601172, 8756.530721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9050.639648, "volume": 565, "typical_volume": 553.6, "trend": 8670.717367, "fair_value": 7823.039676, "relative_strength": 2.24652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.782547, "energy": 63.097409, "activity_lines": [ 9088.201107, 9065.800923, 8905.99644, 8781.871966 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9242.889648, "volume": 326, "typical_volume": 485.4, "trend": 8683.61665, "fair_value": 7844.019994, "relative_strength": 4.455624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.187289, "energy": 67.583035, "activity_lines": [ 9131.792708, 9105.856498, 8954.490323, 8818.786307 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }