{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2466cc6c-c559-4295-b38b-6ef402c90911", "symbol": "XPP", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA FTSE/XINHUA CHINA 50", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.316, "architecture_energy": 23.158, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 46.448, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.82, "rotation_up": 44.32, "upward_expansion": 23.1, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 54.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.286547, 20.18247, 20.564629, 21.225882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.0485, "trend_reference": 22.49158, "distance_from_trend": -0.0197, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.772276, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115122, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.137555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.183205, "excess_performance": -0.30883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0197, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101064, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115122, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089453, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183205, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.46305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13030, "relative_activity": 0.493818, "balance": 0.46305, "dry_up": 0.653096, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079441, "annualized_volatility": 0.401729, "from_high_reference": -0.298411, "from_low_reference": 0.330628 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.49158, "fair_value_reference": 19.772276, "structural_low": 16.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.068971, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.05774, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.344691, "worst_return": -0.330504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.141284, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.209794, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.67541, "worst_return": -0.417272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.234999, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.075061, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.214721, "worst_return": -0.328525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 33212.65, "trend": 23.087025, "fair_value": 19.726676, "relative_strength": -28.027454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.672974, "energy": 60.33487, "activity_lines": [ 18.623973, 19.136045, 20.435254, 21.47492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.2185, "volume": 14133, "typical_volume": 29182.7, "trend": 22.859821, "fair_value": 19.724366, "relative_strength": -25.202148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.711454, "energy": 40.334041, "activity_lines": [ 19.23928, 19.218009, 20.341302, 21.289854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4896, "volume": 31291, "typical_volume": 28219.65, "trend": 22.669847, "fair_value": 19.744451, "relative_strength": -17.271803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.950901, "energy": 19.686422, "activity_lines": [ 20.518427, 19.750626, 20.473312, 21.265968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.0485, "volume": 13030, "typical_volume": 26386.25, "trend": 22.49158, "fair_value": 19.772276, "relative_strength": -21.137555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.316403, "energy": 23.158006, "activity_lines": [ 21.286547, 20.18247, 20.564629, 21.225882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }