{ "ticker": { "uuid": "247ddc12-8ce6-4877-a7ff-3ebd642d605e", "symbol": "PERM", "name": "Permsin Steel Works Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 82.159, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.989, "architecture_energy": 22.384, "architecture_maturity": 36.865, "architecture_confidence": 48.062, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.59, "rotation_up": 40.72, "upward_expansion": 68.2, "deceleration": 59.53, "rotation_down": 21.01, "downward_expansion": 6.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.246, 0.244545, 0.243905, 0.237376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.230333, "distance_from_trend": 0.085384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.563141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.556061, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.732935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25, "excess_performance": 0.057675, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.556061, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.207329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0049, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.479233, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 496700, "relative_activity": 0.283651, "balance": 0.479233, "dry_up": 0.459198, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110769, "annualized_volatility": 0.577067, "from_high_reference": -0.342105, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.230333, "fair_value_reference": 0.563141, "structural_low": 0.15, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.025649, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.012704, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.123864, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.083821, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086957, "worst_return": -0.254753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.253968, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.178676, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.08, "worst_return": -0.366783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.586207, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086957, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.93, "volume": 607300, "typical_volume": 1222000.0, "trend": 0.992667, "fair_value": 1.630086, "relative_strength": -10.702573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.242667, 0.245273, 0.240095, 0.233978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.24, "volume": 1214300, "typical_volume": 2206800.0, "trend": 0.232, "fair_value": 0.576474, "relative_strength": -27.652046, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.307564, "energy": 13.873658, "activity_lines": [ 0.242, 0.243636, 0.240952, 0.234387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.24, "volume": 1261400, "typical_volume": 2085110.0, "trend": 0.231, "fair_value": 0.571923, "relative_strength": -26.931483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.799723, "energy": 13.643572, "activity_lines": [ 0.241333, 0.242727, 0.241571, 0.234903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.25, "volume": 244000, "typical_volume": 1909025.0, "trend": 0.230667, "fair_value": 0.5675, "relative_strength": -22.088487, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.30009, "energy": 19.27598, "activity_lines": [ 0.244, 0.243636, 0.242857, 0.236129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 496700, "typical_volume": 1751095.0, "trend": 0.230333, "fair_value": 0.563141, "relative_strength": -20.732935, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.988933, "energy": 22.384409, "activity_lines": [ 0.246, 0.244545, 0.243905, 0.237376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }