{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2480f352-7a74-4a60-b33f-a5ae703f530c", "symbol": "688520", "name": "Sinocelltech Group Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.124, "architecture_energy": 27.523, "architecture_maturity": 35.491, "architecture_confidence": 68.065, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.39, "rotation_up": 21.41, "upward_expansion": 9.41, "deceleration": 61.93, "rotation_down": 39.75, "downward_expansion": 66.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.716666, 35.638726, 36.962095, 37.990408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.82, "trend_reference": 39.643333, "distance_from_trend": -0.045993, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.144744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.408138, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096296, "excess_performance": -0.053092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045993, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074343, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.278207, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17634743, "relative_activity": 1.337475, "balance": 0.278207, "dry_up": 1.261579, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09952, "annualized_volatility": 0.381009, "from_high_reference": -0.520294, "from_low_reference": 0.17417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.643333, "fair_value_reference": 45.144744, "structural_low": 32.209999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.007855, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.015497, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.233053, "worst_return": -0.142698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.123097, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087961, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.337644, "worst_return": -0.212906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.181801, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.18828, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.319684, "worst_return": -0.251354, "sufficient": true }, { 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-43.529921, "energy": 28.818082, "activity_lines": [ 36.338666, 36.211454, 37.988476, 38.964645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.759998, "volume": 15816865, "typical_volume": 12963488.8, "trend": 40.172, "fair_value": 45.420192, "relative_strength": -26.55751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.622048, "energy": 30.276555, "activity_lines": [ 35.671332, 35.626727, 37.486333, 38.52772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.849998, "volume": 10727689, "typical_volume": 12959763.85, "trend": 39.826333, "fair_value": 45.256538, "relative_strength": -25.22748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.082086, "energy": 38.038831, "activity_lines": [ 35.060665, 35.209999, 37.021952, 38.119849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.82, "volume": 17634743, "typical_volume": 13185102.1, "trend": 39.643333, "fair_value": 45.144744, "relative_strength": -17.408138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.123727, "energy": 27.523027, "activity_lines": [ 35.716666, 35.638726, 36.962095, 37.990408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }