{ "ticker": { "uuid": "248c7e7b-785c-4430-a7e5-e7c12566a8ca", "symbol": "MDI", "name": "Middle Island Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.181, "architecture_energy": 60.131, "architecture_maturity": 93.856, "architecture_confidence": 92.85, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.89, "rotation_up": 29.47, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.57, "rotation_down": 45.52, "downward_expansion": 80.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.014933, 0.015145, 0.017229, 0.021303 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.027467, "distance_from_trend": -0.453883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021356, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.941365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.659091, "excess_performance": -0.722797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.453883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.297612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.529414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.659091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.205431, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 777389, "relative_activity": 0.147787, "balance": 0.205431, "dry_up": 0.217246, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184615, "annualized_volatility": 1.017068, "from_high_reference": -0.769231, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.027467, "fair_value_reference": 0.021356, "structural_low": 0.013, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.058824, "positive_rate": 0.314286, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.064067, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.40626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.181788, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.162174, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.450009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.191883, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.231311, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.633343, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.0156, 0.016473, 0.020114, 0.025019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.017, "volume": 2005525, "typical_volume": 6417588.95, "trend": 0.0298, "fair_value": 0.021486, "relative_strength": -44.350198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.558392, "energy": 60.431574, "activity_lines": [ 0.016267, 0.016345, 0.019367, 0.024166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.014, "volume": 1291071, "typical_volume": 6173098.15, "trend": 0.029233, "fair_value": 0.021436, "relative_strength": -53.861436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.470161, "energy": 62.056149, "activity_lines": [ 0.015733, 0.015745, 0.018495, 0.023146 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 497036, "typical_volume": 5724487.15, "trend": 0.028333, "fair_value": 0.021393, "relative_strength": -54.811264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.971507, "energy": 62.82588, "activity_lines": [ 0.0152, 0.015291, 0.017757, 0.022163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.015, "volume": 777389, "typical_volume": 5260194.3, "trend": 0.027467, "fair_value": 0.021356, "relative_strength": -52.941365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.181019, "energy": 60.131076, "activity_lines": [ 0.014933, 0.015145, 0.017229, 0.021303 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }