{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2498c962-1193-427d-a427-2da4d4ac7397", "symbol": "IJUL", "name": "INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED POWER BUFFER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.175, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.016, "architecture_energy": 47.936, "architecture_maturity": 36.899, "architecture_confidence": 78.388, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.22, "rotation_up": 58.46, "upward_expansion": 79.61, "deceleration": 55.55, "rotation_down": 19.19, "downward_expansion": 6.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.4507, 36.223529, 35.789683, 35.388873 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.9901, "trend_reference": 34.95345, "distance_from_trend": 0.058267, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.209594, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224449, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.218137, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072177, "excess_performance": -0.053448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058267, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031552, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.95416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 220174, "relative_activity": 1.12999, "balance": 1.95416, "dry_up": 1.856973, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028209, "annualized_volatility": 0.082463, "from_high_reference": -0.051049, "from_low_reference": 0.159564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.95345, "fair_value_reference": 30.209594, "structural_low": 31.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.00775, "positive_rate": 0.628571, "directional_follow_through": 0.628571, "median_excess_return": -0.005426, "regime_survival": 0.742857, "best_return": 0.055369, "worst_return": -0.024476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023581, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.046634, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.084506, "worst_return": -0.04145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032452, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.066029, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.11008, "worst_return": -0.060727, "sufficient": true }, { 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35.86054, 35.603616, 35.132515, 34.862639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.14, "volume": 323373, "typical_volume": 144443.45, "trend": 34.58836, "fair_value": 29.9536, "relative_strength": -3.54104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.046836, "energy": 48.588193, "activity_lines": [ 36.005573, 35.739125, 35.263526, 34.968939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.955, "volume": 712171, "typical_volume": 171087.75, "trend": 34.677193, "fair_value": 30.014017, "relative_strength": -2.428652, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.827582, "energy": 41.753972, "activity_lines": [ 36.020333, 35.817065, 35.370211, 35.057109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.0, "volume": 281146, "typical_volume": 179484.0, "trend": 34.758447, "fair_value": 30.074401, "relative_strength": -1.644709, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.587028, "energy": 39.423747, "activity_lines": [ 36.026667, 35.887189, 35.476014, 35.142451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.44, "volume": 233804, "typical_volume": 186057.45, "trend": 34.852113, "fair_value": 30.140171, "relative_strength": -1.427734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.674982, "energy": 40.975126, "activity_lines": [ 36.167667, 36.016229, 35.613516, 35.250939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.9901, "volume": 220174, "typical_volume": 194845.95, "trend": 34.95345, "fair_value": 30.209594, "relative_strength": -3.218137, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.016014, "energy": 47.935854, "activity_lines": [ 36.4507, 36.223529, 35.789683, 35.388873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }