{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24997d45-e54a-4b61-a996-5cbb50248f78", "symbol": "AS1", "name": "Asara Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.199, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.577, "architecture_energy": 38.694, "architecture_maturity": 8.581, "architecture_confidence": 47.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.65, "rotation_up": 20.13, "upward_expansion": 14.97, "deceleration": 47.12, "rotation_down": 56.94, "downward_expansion": 54.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.119667, 0.122727, 0.13, 0.130946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.125, "trend_reference": 0.129167, "distance_from_trend": -0.032258, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.051635, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.420857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.684508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.190476, "excess_performance": 0.126771, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109997, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.420857, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.04581, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.096845, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.602636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.190476, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384175, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39552909, "relative_activity": 4.827665, "balance": 0.384175, "dry_up": 1.671897, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14, "annualized_volatility": 0.628891, "from_high_reference": -0.242424, "from_low_reference": 1.192982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.129167, "fair_value_reference": 0.051635, "structural_low": 0.095, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.177778, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.236445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.177778, "worst_return": -0.177778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.311111, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.29248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.311111, "worst_return": -0.311111, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.476018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.677778, "positive_rate": 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"2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.277778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.433333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.254237, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.309524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.029, "volume": 776327, "typical_volume": 2382509.45, "trend": 0.0316, "fair_value": 0.095246, "relative_strength": -16.141217, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.31501, "energy": 50.021344, 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0.133523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.13, "volume": 245366, "typical_volume": 8071993.2, "trend": 0.126, "fair_value": 0.048859, "relative_strength": 26.427509, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.931805, "energy": 13.198341, "activity_lines": [ 0.133667, 0.138091, 0.137857, 0.13388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.12, "volume": 708314, "typical_volume": 7646067.15, "trend": 0.126733, "fair_value": 0.049404, "relative_strength": 15.762356, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.353053, "energy": 12.318937, "activity_lines": [ 0.128333, 0.134364, 0.136214, 0.133492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.11, "volume": 4406575, "typical_volume": 7378261.85, "trend": 0.127067, "fair_value": 0.049891, "relative_strength": 5.177837, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.741276, "energy": 38.23989, "activity_lines": [ 0.121333, 0.129091, 0.133738, 0.132413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.11, "volume": 2251744, "typical_volume": 7200970.05, "trend": 0.1274, "fair_value": 0.050404, "relative_strength": 4.404972, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.637383, "energy": 47.901884, "activity_lines": [ 0.116, 0.124545, 0.131405, 0.131312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.125, "volume": 8579984, "typical_volume": 7137566.85, "trend": 0.128267, "fair_value": 0.051013, "relative_strength": 14.424447, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.232187, "energy": 45.234182, "activity_lines": [ 0.117667, 0.123455, 0.130667, 0.131157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.125, "volume": 39552909, "typical_volume": 8192969.6, "trend": 0.129167, "fair_value": 0.051635, "relative_strength": 9.684508, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.577317, "energy": 38.693698, "activity_lines": [ 0.119667, 0.122727, 0.13, 0.130946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }