{ "ticker": { "uuid": "249efa7d-6e49-459e-85ac-d4f311e0445f", "symbol": "QYLD", "name": "Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call UCITS ETF Dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.904, "architecture_energy": 24.05, "architecture_maturity": 59.489, "architecture_confidence": 78.531, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.85, "rotation_up": 25.09, "upward_expansion": 57.55, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 35.74, "downward_expansion": 21.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.4148, 14.513701, 14.430935, 14.273058 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.508, "trend_reference": 14.070242, "distance_from_trend": 0.031112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.777714, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135414, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.706573, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076176, "excess_performance": -0.094715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026261, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00602, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076176, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.026433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130279, "relative_activity": 1.22721, "balance": 2.026433, "dry_up": 1.368117, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023319, "annualized_volatility": 0.102096, "from_high_reference": -0.032155, "from_low_reference": 0.19093 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.070242, "fair_value_reference": 12.777714, "structural_low": 13.298544, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.080838, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042046, "worst_return": -0.096988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.037491, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059428, "worst_return": -0.063823, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.060908, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162608, "worst_return": -0.040791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008905, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006318, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007246, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.083272, "energy": 82.248782, "activity_lines": [ 14.578059, 14.464655, 14.206674, 14.055368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.787448, "volume": 21489, "typical_volume": 97751.75, "trend": 13.919147, "fair_value": 12.663192, "relative_strength": -6.234714, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.144601, "energy": 88.21229, "activity_lines": [ 14.659436, 14.546212, 14.280452, 14.11414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.91, "volume": 125012, "typical_volume": 100163.8, "trend": 13.969133, "fair_value": 12.689648, "relative_strength": -4.945881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.52876, "energy": 89.040239, "activity_lines": [ 14.761389, 14.634286, 14.359283, 14.178066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.396, "volume": 137033, "typical_volume": 102463.6, "trend": 13.998306, "fair_value": 12.712136, "relative_strength": -6.751869, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.534742, "energy": 53.20653, "activity_lines": [ 14.661008, 14.61191, 14.382967, 14.205606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.476, "volume": 129562, "typical_volume": 104407.95, "trend": 14.030145, "fair_value": 12.734309, "relative_strength": -5.95607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.353788, "energy": 41.804247, "activity_lines": [ 14.590559, 14.598574, 14.410644, 14.236425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.138, "volume": 184076, "typical_volume": 110536.25, "trend": 14.048053, "fair_value": 12.754556, "relative_strength": -8.571555, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.324503, "energy": 18.139431, "activity_lines": [ 14.425963, 14.519956, 14.403561, 14.243384 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.508, "volume": 130279, "typical_volume": 106158.7, "trend": 14.070242, "fair_value": 12.777714, "relative_strength": -8.706573, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.904069, "energy": 24.049919, "activity_lines": [ 14.4148, 14.513701, 14.430935, 14.273058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }