{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24ac7ce2-6e5a-4d90-91cd-bfc6dec1083a", "symbol": "LNSR", "name": "LENSAR Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.993, "architecture_energy": 44.581, "architecture_maturity": 85.078, "architecture_confidence": 86.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.19, "rotation_up": 25.31, "upward_expansion": 6.05, "deceleration": 60.1, "rotation_down": 48.05, "downward_expansion": 77.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.643333, 5.744182, 5.748381, 6.321763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.04, "trend_reference": 7.595, "distance_from_trend": -0.20474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.654437, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210915, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.590438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.687454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188482, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210915, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034558, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138665, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.340522, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176959, "relative_activity": 0.470551, "balance": 0.340522, "dry_up": 0.462457, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101349, "annualized_volatility": 0.896745, "from_high_reference": -0.538226, "from_low_reference": 0.220202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.595, "fair_value_reference": 7.654437, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.009738, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.033703, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.57874, "worst_return": -0.302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.064615, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.166745, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.769585, "worst_return": -0.375926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.004799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.148859, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.502304, "worst_return": -0.398148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.585502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120344, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069748, "active": false 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153898, "typical_volume": 513917.25, "trend": 7.999333, "fair_value": 7.627321, "relative_strength": -47.695084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.54908, "energy": 36.679253, "activity_lines": [ 5.844, 5.842364, 5.814762, 6.626839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.01, "volume": 261012, "typical_volume": 508213.45, "trend": 7.779333, "fair_value": 7.638796, "relative_strength": -52.553695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.650657, "energy": 58.459997, "activity_lines": [ 5.551333, 5.689818, 5.721, 6.433978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.04, "volume": 176959, "typical_volume": 376068.0, "trend": 7.595, "fair_value": 7.654437, "relative_strength": -44.590438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.992992, "energy": 44.581233, "activity_lines": [ 5.643333, 5.744182, 5.748381, 6.321763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }