{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24b3dce3-5a73-4fb3-b5ff-65b5958f6a1e", "symbol": "UAC", "name": "UAC Global Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 88.269, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.366, "architecture_energy": 11.781, "architecture_maturity": 22.594, "architecture_confidence": 51.029, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.4, "rotation_up": 41.65, "upward_expansion": 29.61, "deceleration": 48.48, "rotation_down": 25.49, "downward_expansion": 25.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.613333, 2.594182, 2.618732, 2.622804 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.7, "trend_reference": 2.609991, "distance_from_trend": 0.034486, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.688037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.771058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073529, "excess_performance": -0.118796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034486, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01112, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066123, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7742, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1733500, "relative_activity": 1.807471, "balance": 0.7742, "dry_up": 1.544248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032479, "annualized_volatility": 0.21087, "from_high_reference": -0.09421, "from_low_reference": 0.123461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.609991, "fair_value_reference": 2.688037, "structural_low": 2.421918, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015385, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.018131, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.133793, "worst_return": -0.109244, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055813, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.066328, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.007519, "worst_return": -0.157754, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.139377, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089673, "worst_return": -0.171393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021428, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02963, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044776, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046512, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.992956, "volume": 822700, "typical_volume": 802170.0, "trend": 3.156409, "fair_value": 3.421284, "relative_strength": -6.657042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.12585, "energy": 43.088771, "activity_lines": [ 2.562667, 2.590545, 2.631752, 2.621269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.58, "volume": 1454900, "typical_volume": 820490.0, "trend": 2.596438, "fair_value": 2.695239, "relative_strength": -17.358833, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.569565, "energy": 32.736514, "activity_lines": [ 2.564, 2.581091, 2.626266, 2.620227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.56, "volume": 1682600, "typical_volume": 880235.0, "trend": 2.60042, "fair_value": 2.692562, "relative_strength": -17.758542, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.66274, "energy": 21.284474, "activity_lines": [ 2.561333, 2.573818, 2.618832, 2.617877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.58, "volume": 1053200, "typical_volume": 898270.0, "trend": 2.603206, "fair_value": 2.69041, "relative_strength": -15.706527, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.271931, "energy": 20.169719, "activity_lines": [ 2.568, 2.572727, 2.613001, 2.616559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.7, "volume": 1733500, "typical_volume": 959075.0, "trend": 2.609991, "fair_value": 2.688037, "relative_strength": -10.771058, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.365689, "energy": 11.780537, "activity_lines": [ 2.613333, 2.594182, 2.618732, 2.622804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }