{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24b62634-9147-4906-9885-7f3674e4e749", "symbol": "GPRE", "name": "Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_to_3_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 2 \u2192 3 watch", "confidence": 49.484, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.34, "architecture_energy": 21.955, "architecture_maturity": 9.769, "architecture_confidence": 58.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.81, "rotation_up": 43.78, "upward_expansion": 70.43, "deceleration": 61.72, "rotation_down": 18.19, "downward_expansion": 4.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.456667, 16.309818, 16.185524, 15.992495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.65, "trend_reference": 15.374333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047113, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.796571, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.135501, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057762, "excess_performance": -0.129692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047113, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150917, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009906, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453933, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057762, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74076, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8299799, "relative_activity": 1.16142, "balance": 0.74076, "dry_up": 1.052718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126177, "annualized_volatility": 0.521835, "from_high_reference": -0.254263, "from_low_reference": 0.945551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.374333, "fair_value_reference": 14.796571, "structural_low": 13.12, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008039, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.014317, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.199316, "worst_return": -0.269816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045384, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.033905, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.361848, "worst_return": -0.091971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.050967, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003799, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.569989, "worst_return": -0.138454, "sufficient": false }, { 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15.624727, 15.875905, 15.464581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.23, "volume": 9552732, "typical_volume": 7396750.35, "trend": 14.783667, "fair_value": 15.127468, "relative_strength": 38.531141, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.081419, "energy": 55.323293, "activity_lines": [ 17.016, 16.234727, 16.196857, 15.772581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.95, "volume": 5962801, "typical_volume": 7244061.2, "trend": 15.019333, "fair_value": 15.009135, "relative_strength": 22.895742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.190618, "energy": 50.837845, "activity_lines": [ 17.23, 16.411273, 16.274476, 15.912344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.85, "volume": 6276617, "typical_volume": 7211274.3, "trend": 15.238333, "fair_value": 14.913494, "relative_strength": 20.330635, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.232768, "energy": 53.504458, "activity_lines": [ 17.268667, 16.573091, 16.337238, 16.030452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.65, "volume": 8299799, "typical_volume": 7146252.1, "trend": 15.374333, "fair_value": 14.796571, "relative_strength": -1.135501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.340387, "energy": 21.954778, "activity_lines": [ 16.456667, 16.309818, 16.185524, 15.992495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }