{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24b8e42e-c1ba-4f18-9d0e-fafc443f0805", "symbol": "COM", "name": "Comer Industries S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.889, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.759, "architecture_energy": 17.694, "architecture_maturity": 17.184, "architecture_confidence": 44.155, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.01, "rotation_up": 41.92, "upward_expansion": 59.44, "deceleration": 62.28, "rotation_down": 25.42, "downward_expansion": 21.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.533332, 47.98909, 48.403692, 47.674841 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 47.599998, "trend_reference": 47.284916, "distance_from_trend": 0.006663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.849181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.406238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.839596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0109, "excess_performance": -0.181791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047871, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.406238, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280036, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058396, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287141, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.637949, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128815, "relative_activity": 2.636756, "balance": 0.637949, "dry_up": 1.600957, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077103, "annualized_volatility": 0.444562, "from_high_reference": -0.154423, "from_low_reference": 0.430977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.284916, "fair_value_reference": 33.849181, "structural_low": 37.692628, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.048906, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.002401, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.178439, "worst_return": -0.163333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.140408, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.026346, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.346032, "worst_return": -0.157051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.166549, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.06476, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.335689, "worst_return": -0.073248, "sufficient": false }, { 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.011627, "energy": 22.319564, "activity_lines": [ 46.153333, 47.568182, 47.683464, 47.233638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.799999, "volume": 97280, "typical_volume": 42770.25, "trend": 47.127926, "fair_value": 33.609035, "relative_strength": 2.495028, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.320575, "energy": 14.502627, "activity_lines": [ 47.199999, 47.745454, 47.990571, 47.418522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.799999, "volume": 69303, "typical_volume": 44974.5, "trend": 47.29912, "fair_value": 33.736414, "relative_strength": 3.453344, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.135768, "energy": 17.382645, "activity_lines": [ 48.593332, 48.158181, 48.366661, 47.65543 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.599998, "volume": 128815, "typical_volume": 48853.6, "trend": 47.284916, "fair_value": 33.849181, "relative_strength": -5.839596, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.759056, "energy": 17.69444, "activity_lines": [ 48.533332, 47.98909, 48.403692, 47.674841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }