{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24ba013e-c4ee-43f1-bdc6-9702394f2a90", "symbol": "6210", "name": "Kintech Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.97, "architecture_energy": 70.037, "architecture_maturity": 17.248, "architecture_confidence": 87.101, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.61, "rotation_up": 9.72, "upward_expansion": 15.44, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 74.01, "downward_expansion": 91.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.993333, 18.684546, 19.495238, 19.752903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.75, "trend_reference": 20.07, "distance_from_trend": -0.115595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.796474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.204712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136253, "excess_performance": -0.577625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10789, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.352047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104138, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136253, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.195721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67000, "relative_activity": 0.391433, "balance": 0.195721, "dry_up": 0.514745, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082124, "annualized_volatility": 0.217508, "from_high_reference": -0.216336, "from_low_reference": 0.102484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.07, "fair_value_reference": 22.796474, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.010642, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.026274, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.151703, "worst_return": -0.179931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.043379, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.073602, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.048159, "worst_return": -0.157518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.098131, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.183802, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.229607, "worst_return": -0.229706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 23.145528, "relative_strength": -29.569599, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.674764, "energy": 53.60028, "activity_lines": [ 19.533334, 20.052727, 20.245476, 20.29043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.5, "volume": 17000, "typical_volume": 176699.75, "trend": 20.306667, "fair_value": 23.067361, "relative_strength": -27.598319, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.36395, "energy": 52.143262, "activity_lines": [ 19.426667, 19.887273, 20.173571, 20.236344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.35, "volume": 98206, "typical_volume": 177156.9, "trend": 20.241667, "fair_value": 22.98122, "relative_strength": -30.334265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.953126, "energy": 62.37763, "activity_lines": [ 19.016667, 19.542727, 19.99619, 20.110107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.1, "volume": 170221, "typical_volume": 180766.25, "trend": 20.145, "fair_value": 22.888874, "relative_strength": -35.99087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.376642, "energy": 72.699126, "activity_lines": [ 18.303333, 19.02, 19.708095, 19.907419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.75, "volume": 67000, "typical_volume": 171165.8, "trend": 20.07, "fair_value": 22.796474, "relative_strength": -35.204712, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.970381, "energy": 70.036501, "activity_lines": [ 17.993333, 18.684546, 19.495238, 19.752903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }