{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24bcf0f9-b592-4a77-9874-0fd4abef153d", "symbol": "900906", "name": "Guizhou Zhongyida Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.446, "architecture_energy": 56.916, "architecture_maturity": 85.409, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 29.27, "upward_expansion": 10.69, "deceleration": 57.55, "rotation_down": 50.13, "downward_expansion": 84.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2174, 0.218309, 0.226414, 0.241219 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.217, "trend_reference": 0.261767, "distance_from_trend": -0.171017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.24284, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106407, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.099785, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.340426, "excess_performance": -0.297222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105377, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.106407, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240998, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039911, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.340426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.325677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5088600, "relative_activity": 1.760657, "balance": 0.325677, "dry_up": 1.120155, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056009, "annualized_volatility": 0.24237, "from_high_reference": -0.450633, "from_low_reference": 0.033333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.261767, "fair_value_reference": 0.24284, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.010074, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015731, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.17, "worst_return": -0.380392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.12114, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.074973, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.804196, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.073593, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.139231, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.243478, "worst_return": -0.481982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.219, "volume": 1459812, "typical_volume": 3542233.2, "trend": 0.2726, "fair_value": 0.246295, "relative_strength": -26.282358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.475686, "energy": 62.512455, "activity_lines": [ 0.220333, 0.222109, 0.238424, 0.254415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.215, "volume": 1466265, "typical_volume": 3326534.05, "trend": 0.269433, "fair_value": 0.245455, "relative_strength": -22.663709, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.22957, "energy": 61.706565, "activity_lines": [ 0.218467, 0.219782, 0.234543, 0.250699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.217, "volume": 2356600, "typical_volume": 2992796.75, "trend": 0.266533, "fair_value": 0.244615, "relative_strength": -22.489249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.249097, "energy": 57.887583, "activity_lines": [ 0.217733, 0.218691, 0.231367, 0.247316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.219, "volume": 4038300, "typical_volume": 2947421.45, "trend": 0.263967, "fair_value": 0.243801, "relative_strength": -21.711885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.441432, "energy": 56.308689, "activity_lines": [ 0.2178, 0.218618, 0.228795, 0.244249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.217, "volume": 5088600, "typical_volume": 2890171.3, "trend": 0.261767, "fair_value": 0.24284, "relative_strength": -24.099785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.445679, "energy": 56.915666, "activity_lines": [ 0.2174, 0.218309, 0.226414, 0.241219 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }