{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24c07c7e-f14b-4405-81f9-1f529ab9aed4", "symbol": "IVLU", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI INTL VALUE FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.517, "architecture_energy": 77.363, "architecture_maturity": 38.575, "architecture_confidence": 80.717, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.29, "rotation_up": 73.45, "upward_expansion": 91.9, "deceleration": 43.08, "rotation_down": 14.64, "downward_expansion": 16.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.368667, 42.849897, 42.27489, 41.696817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 44.44, "trend_reference": 41.065098, "distance_from_trend": 0.082184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.325156, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.46545, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.791422, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.078617, "excess_performance": -0.047008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082184, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050483, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.46545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027914, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.078617, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.53763, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3689563, "relative_activity": 0.775582, "balance": 1.53763, "dry_up": 0.83849, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025258, "annualized_volatility": 0.171738, "from_high_reference": -0.001012, "from_low_reference": 0.345135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.065098, "fair_value_reference": 30.325156, "structural_low": 37.15359, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.018511, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00265, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.074702, "worst_return": -0.083647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.042571, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.013813, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.172632, "worst_return": -0.075576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.080665, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.049721, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.249934, "worst_return": -0.140976, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021209, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003311, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070359, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.804164, "energy": 42.697791, "activity_lines": [ 42.242864, 42.075714, 41.454452, 41.041424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.12, "volume": 3544306, "typical_volume": 5663660.65, "trend": 40.512944, "fair_value": 29.931386, "relative_strength": 1.946388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.880943, "energy": 37.244632, "activity_lines": [ 42.217333, 42.110281, 41.577057, 41.155605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.47, "volume": 3949724, "typical_volume": 5206227.7, "trend": 40.674913, "fair_value": 30.053572, "relative_strength": 3.204019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.028838, "energy": 41.97177, "activity_lines": [ 42.318667, 42.197496, 41.732975, 41.281867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.53, "volume": 4771706, "typical_volume": 5013304.2, "trend": 40.863363, "fair_value": 30.18632, "relative_strength": 4.394916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.011252, "energy": 58.862842, "activity_lines": [ 42.755333, 42.455258, 41.97317, 41.466066 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.44, "volume": 3689563, "typical_volume": 4757152.2, "trend": 41.065098, "fair_value": 30.325156, "relative_strength": 2.791422, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.516599, "energy": 77.363455, "activity_lines": [ 43.368667, 42.849897, 42.27489, 41.696817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }