{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24cd92b9-33de-4b9b-a08e-675285271b5f", "symbol": "HCITY", "name": "Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 65.56, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.963, "architecture_energy": 36.97, "architecture_maturity": 19.695, "architecture_confidence": 75.211, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.02, "rotation_up": 16.11, "upward_expansion": 3.59, "deceleration": 52.83, "rotation_down": 54.52, "downward_expansion": 74.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.756667, 5.785818, 5.897619, 5.972323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.95, "trend_reference": 6.074667, "distance_from_trend": -0.020522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.244551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.413797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049521, "excess_performance": 0.005146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028727, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134511, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007052, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.453064, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1032628, "relative_activity": 2.709532, "balance": 3.453064, "dry_up": 1.157763, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055074, "annualized_volatility": 0.224441, "from_high_reference": -0.178177, "from_low_reference": 0.322222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.074667, "fair_value_reference": 5.244551, "structural_low": 5.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.013401, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013255, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.487603, "worst_return": -0.203306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.086601, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058771, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.70442, "worst_return": -0.342988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049841, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114229, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.399093, "worst_return": -0.303333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.09636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018605, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.31524, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 5.46, "volume": 324732, "typical_volume": 325102.1, "trend": 6.1, "fair_value": 5.253846, "relative_strength": -8.632099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.88813, "energy": 67.706031, "activity_lines": [ 5.692667, 5.803636, 5.930667, 6.006925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7, "volume": 309495, "typical_volume": 332519.5, "trend": 6.086333, "fair_value": 5.248077, "relative_strength": -5.424628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.112321, "energy": 42.698254, "activity_lines": [ 5.680667, 5.767636, 5.90081, 5.981118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.95, "volume": 1032628, "typical_volume": 381109.3, "trend": 6.074667, "fair_value": 5.244551, "relative_strength": -1.413797, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.962773, "energy": 36.970249, "activity_lines": [ 5.756667, 5.785818, 5.897619, 5.972323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }