{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24d0a2d7-9228-45b1-a825-9ce83023089f", "symbol": "LEMONTREE", "name": "Lemon Tree Hotels Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.325, "architecture_energy": 34.149, "architecture_maturity": 16.562, "architecture_confidence": 79.68, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.56, "rotation_up": 15.73, "upward_expansion": 6.87, "deceleration": 44.83, "rotation_down": 60.05, "downward_expansion": 73.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.845335, 112.726002, 113.309144, 113.343721 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 111.010002, "trend_reference": 115.367, "distance_from_trend": -0.037766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 133.751475, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.198829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120434, "excess_performance": -0.076725, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170028, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16331962, "relative_activity": 0.930594, "balance": 0.593753, "dry_up": 0.776088, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05583, "annualized_volatility": 0.292825, "from_high_reference": -0.385599, "from_low_reference": 0.114446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.367, "fair_value_reference": 133.751475, "structural_low": 99.610001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010883, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.005711, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.195175, "worst_return": -0.081126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074443, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024528, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.251142, "worst_return": 0.012351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.212903, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.186036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401524, "worst_return": 0.091324, 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"2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099904, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128513, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.072817, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066751, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 102.150002, "volume": 58269568, "typical_volume": 25885514.75, "trend": 86.251667, "fair_value": 59.457693, "relative_strength": 12.308787, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.729842, "energy": 16.72023, "activity_lines": [ 113.833334, 113.899274, 113.804525, 114.279312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.300003, "volume": 12107257, "typical_volume": 17954810.0, "trend": 116.661, "fair_value": 133.646923, "relative_strength": -18.242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.509977, "energy": 32.03656, "activity_lines": [ 111.708002, 113.120729, 113.494906, 113.708302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.010002, "volume": 16331962, "typical_volume": 17550036.95, "trend": 115.367, "fair_value": 133.751475, "relative_strength": -17.198829, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.325023, "energy": 34.14909, "activity_lines": [ 110.845335, 112.726002, 113.309144, 113.343721 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }