{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24d0a8e4-aaab-41c1-bd37-502c3389a4cc", "symbol": "9515", "name": "Fesh Fash Snack Food Production Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.748, "architecture_energy": 88.981, "architecture_maturity": 28.261, "architecture_confidence": 80.847, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 9.02, "upward_expansion": 21.32, "deceleration": 37.32, "rotation_down": 84.22, "downward_expansion": 99.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.024, 5.233091, 5.464884, 5.739312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.95, "trend_reference": 6.023809, "distance_from_trend": -0.178261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.754941, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.361697, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.332037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259615, "excess_performance": -0.227786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.361697, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.845003, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22865, "relative_activity": 0.260601, "balance": 0.845003, "dry_up": 0.419391, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055722, "annualized_volatility": 0.394326, "from_high_reference": -0.373644, "from_low_reference": 0.020619 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.023809, "fair_value_reference": 7.754941, "structural_low": 4.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.001252, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.011999, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.516364, "worst_return": -0.142276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.047778, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.093883, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.469965, "worst_return": -0.208392, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.076469, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.081267, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.163636, "worst_return": -0.196629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-15.750535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.611844, "energy": 92.940927, "activity_lines": [ 5.275333, 5.456779, 5.638231, 5.884061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.92, "volume": 20130, "typical_volume": 87161.15, "trend": 6.046428, "fair_value": 7.798482, "relative_strength": -16.154864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.373286, "energy": 93.17071, "activity_lines": [ 5.118667, 5.333169, 5.544496, 5.810049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.95, "volume": 22865, "typical_volume": 87739.65, "trend": 6.023809, "fair_value": 7.754941, "relative_strength": -17.332037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.747651, "energy": 88.980761, "activity_lines": [ 5.024, 5.233091, 5.464884, 5.739312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }