{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24d5b883-c978-40b1-848f-c73a2d9fa461", "symbol": "PGH", "name": "SGT German Private Equity GmbH & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.936, "architecture_energy": 48.947, "architecture_maturity": 36.92, "architecture_confidence": 87.43, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.41, "rotation_up": 18.89, "upward_expansion": 5.81, "deceleration": 51.81, "rotation_down": 62.9, "downward_expansion": 81.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2312, 0.239818, 0.261562, 0.274348 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.207, "trend_reference": 0.2896, "distance_from_trend": -0.285221, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.80566, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.743068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.695679, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.425, "excess_performance": -0.48964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285221, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.743068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120916, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.556957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192201, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.646657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75523, "relative_activity": 3.663506, "balance": 0.646657, "dry_up": 1.312045, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195838, "annualized_volatility": 0.813366, "from_high_reference": -0.838281, "from_low_reference": 0.725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.2896, "fair_value_reference": 0.80566, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.028589, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.025705, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.558824, "worst_return": -0.582781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.034375, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064064, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.821429, "worst_return": -0.596552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.119579, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.085336, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.632479, "worst_return": -0.579137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.259856, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.456298, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130259, "worst_return": -0.6225, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.539568, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.420118, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198113, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.217742, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.254902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24918, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.299145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.302857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155102, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.75, "volume": 17460, "typical_volume": 29673.0, "trend": 1.60021, "fair_value": 1.562868, "relative_strength": 1.505182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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-62.807487, "energy": 62.453092, "activity_lines": [ 0.254467, 0.268618, 0.286724, 0.297744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.244, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 16682.4, "trend": 0.315167, "fair_value": 0.846321, "relative_strength": -51.936187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.653867, "energy": 69.331524, "activity_lines": [ 0.248533, 0.261455, 0.281938, 0.292591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.238, "volume": 3505, "typical_volume": 16678.55, "trend": 0.307833, "fair_value": 0.835859, "relative_strength": -51.724526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.140667, "energy": 71.028845, "activity_lines": [ 0.243333, 0.254727, 0.276714, 0.287613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.255, "volume": 18177, "typical_volume": 17262.4, "trend": 0.301067, "fair_value": 0.825763, "relative_strength": -46.710138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.094125, "energy": 56.898704, "activity_lines": [ 0.246933, 0.253127, 0.273481, 0.284204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.237, "volume": 10986, "typical_volume": 17013.25, "trend": 0.2957, "fair_value": 0.815679, "relative_strength": -49.668703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.353384, "energy": 50.564721, "activity_lines": [ 0.2438, 0.2488, 0.268871, 0.280071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.207, "volume": 75523, "typical_volume": 20614.95, "trend": 0.2896, "fair_value": 0.80566, "relative_strength": -55.695679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.936368, "energy": 48.946538, "activity_lines": [ 0.2312, 0.239818, 0.261562, 0.274348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }