{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24d7b9a0-9cf7-45f4-bc9a-32cc645f61cd", "symbol": "4071", "name": "Arabian Contracting Services Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.605, "architecture_energy": 82.873, "architecture_maturity": 43.626, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 18.84, "deceleration": 39.5, "rotation_down": 73.01, "downward_expansion": 96.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.990001, 85.995455, 91.592858, 96.965377 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 81.849998, "trend_reference": 104.258333, "distance_from_trend": -0.214931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 148.875087, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.45021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.669293, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.326337, "excess_performance": -0.294508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082812, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.45021, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137682, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.370382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 529135, "relative_activity": 1.169665, "balance": 0.370382, "dry_up": 0.910498, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060617, "annualized_volatility": 0.264481, "from_high_reference": -0.37804, "from_low_reference": 0.026976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.258333, "fair_value_reference": 148.875087, "structural_low": 79.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.034875, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.022277, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.184721, "worst_return": -0.173502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.119982, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.119027, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.124031, "worst_return": -0.200599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.256757, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.217098, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.086142, "worst_return": -0.288, "sufficient": false }, { 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"trend": 106.561667, "fair_value": 150.126835, "relative_strength": -18.808693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.505132, "energy": 88.13599, "activity_lines": [ 86.896668, 89.402728, 95.244048, 100.186559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.150002, "volume": 314020, "typical_volume": 428065.9, "trend": 105.366667, "fair_value": 149.504254, "relative_strength": -20.681376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.34026, "energy": 90.064905, "activity_lines": [ 84.273335, 87.422728, 93.26381, 98.482581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.849998, "volume": 529135, "typical_volume": 452381.7, "trend": 104.258333, "fair_value": 148.875087, "relative_strength": -20.669293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.605128, "energy": 82.872835, "activity_lines": [ 82.990001, 85.995455, 91.592858, 96.965377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }