{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24d85d02-51c7-49f5-b690-1d8d17da9846", "symbol": "GNE", "name": "Genie Energy Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.485, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.722, "architecture_energy": 16.116, "architecture_maturity": 54.96, "architecture_confidence": 64.022, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.25, "rotation_up": 39.43, "upward_expansion": 61.38, "deceleration": 77.49, "rotation_down": 24.03, "downward_expansion": 16.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.227333, 14.24, 14.136551, 14.098138 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.55, "trend_reference": 14.07068, "distance_from_trend": 0.034065, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.098214, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.538684, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039242, "excess_performance": -0.086383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034065, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002987, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096173, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122629, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.07129, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 418261, "relative_activity": 1.173936, "balance": 1.07129, "dry_up": 1.024228, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060321, "annualized_volatility": 0.225061, "from_high_reference": -0.10969, "from_low_reference": 0.152745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.07068, "fair_value_reference": 16.098214, "structural_low": 12.622042, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.00361, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -2.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.378977, "worst_return": -0.185567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.055453, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.110809, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.679202, "worst_return": -0.245827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.060789, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042303, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.034277, "worst_return": 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0.046077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08765, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.218807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001961, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059207, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.006768, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.731987, "volume": 467044, "typical_volume": 711855.75, "trend": 12.928276, "fair_value": 7.926703, "relative_strength": 20.689826, "stage": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.08, "volume": 544644, "typical_volume": 346453.65, "trend": 14.022005, "fair_value": 16.07435, "relative_strength": -13.916345, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.851902, "energy": 35.573626, "activity_lines": [ 14.313333, 14.173629, 14.073739, 14.057761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.99, "volume": 374102, "typical_volume": 351602.2, "trend": 14.023301, "fair_value": 16.081572, "relative_strength": -12.066501, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.112504, "energy": 27.681194, "activity_lines": [ 14.219333, 14.157608, 14.068327, 14.055696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.32, "volume": 323114, "typical_volume": 352902.4, "trend": 14.043183, "fair_value": 16.092304, "relative_strength": -8.514137, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.272993, "energy": 20.568395, "activity_lines": [ 14.242, 14.208364, 14.096544, 14.074838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.91, "volume": 344210, "typical_volume": 356879.65, "trend": 14.055665, "fair_value": 16.098589, "relative_strength": -11.001812, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.129438, "energy": 11.669732, "activity_lines": [ 14.105333, 14.165818, 14.085112, 14.066246 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.55, "volume": 418261, "typical_volume": 356289.55, "trend": 14.07068, "fair_value": 16.098214, "relative_strength": -9.538684, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.722476, "energy": 16.115847, "activity_lines": [ 14.227333, 14.24, 14.136551, 14.098138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }