{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24dbc697-4971-4339-a572-3566a4b539ea", "symbol": "300133", "name": "Zhejiang Huace Film & TV Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.59, "architecture_energy": 37.787, "architecture_maturity": 21.165, "architecture_confidence": 88.351, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.45, "rotation_up": 16.53, "upward_expansion": 4.46, "deceleration": 48.41, "rotation_down": 50.84, "downward_expansion": 73.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.988667, 7.065273, 7.51999, 7.70099 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.3, "trend_reference": 8.018158, "distance_from_trend": -0.089566, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.177047, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017131, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.613794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.211508, "excess_performance": -0.218908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017131, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.126138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.249387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 419656549, "relative_activity": 1.031716, "balance": 1.249387, "dry_up": 0.93399, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130704, "annualized_volatility": 0.476888, "from_high_reference": -0.361632, "from_low_reference": 0.17175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.018158, "fair_value_reference": 7.177047, "structural_low": 6.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.05482, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.005118, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.734767, "worst_return": -0.160542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022735, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.113631, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.606805, "worst_return": -0.068939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.163113, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.131939, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.826248, "worst_return": -0.049501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-14.04974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.351329, "energy": 41.772855, "activity_lines": [ 7.226, 7.422612, 7.778736, 7.940971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.3, "volume": 382594227, "typical_volume": 395982368.05, "trend": 8.09412, "fair_value": 7.172882, "relative_strength": -22.602024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.703268, "energy": 45.98501, "activity_lines": [ 6.914, 7.146691, 7.632282, 7.821373 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.98, "volume": 329487822, "typical_volume": 396406139.25, "trend": 8.051805, "fair_value": 7.173147, "relative_strength": -12.512256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.017241, "energy": 40.140208, "activity_lines": [ 6.899333, 7.054727, 7.558874, 7.749494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.3, "volume": 419656549, "typical_volume": 406755953.15, "trend": 8.018158, "fair_value": 7.177047, "relative_strength": -12.613794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.590485, "energy": 37.786765, "activity_lines": [ 6.988667, 7.065273, 7.51999, 7.70099 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }