{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24dd9a23-2517-4a04-b144-a707f5be22fb", "symbol": "HTHT", "name": "Huazhu Group Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.32, "architecture_energy": 44.937, "architecture_maturity": 40.302, "architecture_confidence": 95.575, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 26.61, "upward_expansion": 7.09, "deceleration": 55.15, "rotation_down": 48.17, "downward_expansion": 80.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.906, 42.044909, 43.723596, 45.281063 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.37, "trend_reference": 46.987462, "distance_from_trend": -0.09827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.174248, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171275, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.235628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161964, "excess_performance": -0.349418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171275, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148739, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1112, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161964, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.53631, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6053327, "relative_activity": 0.640488, "balance": 0.53631, "dry_up": 0.776251, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061255, "annualized_volatility": 0.249362, "from_high_reference": -0.231585, "from_low_reference": 0.390883 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.987462, "fair_value_reference": 36.174248, "structural_low": 39.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.018158, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.041049, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.238173, "worst_return": -0.224175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.150383, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": 0.085204, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.362396, "worst_return": -0.128293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007427, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.038787, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.623027, "worst_return": -0.113682, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 40.47, "volume": 9271364, "typical_volume": 9527142.45, "trend": 47.313386, "fair_value": 36.142345, "relative_strength": -15.157664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.530102, "energy": 76.501634, "activity_lines": [ 41.283333, 42.165636, 44.398371, 45.889602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.69, "volume": 7762551, "typical_volume": 9585336.2, "trend": 47.178961, "fair_value": 36.156585, "relative_strength": -11.191803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.893987, "energy": 56.350852, "activity_lines": [ 41.658667, 42.115273, 44.060755, 45.591319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.37, "volume": 6053327, "typical_volume": 9451110.25, "trend": 46.987462, "fair_value": 36.174248, "relative_strength": -16.235628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.320181, "energy": 44.93698, "activity_lines": [ 41.906, 42.044909, 43.723596, 45.281063 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }