{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24de9110-af65-408f-b03d-0de914f33063", "symbol": "BTML", "name": "Bodhi Tree Multimedia Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.65, "architecture_energy": 32.6, "architecture_maturity": 17.594, "architecture_confidence": 90.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.69, "rotation_up": 62.67, "upward_expansion": 40.8, "deceleration": 32.68, "rotation_down": 20.25, "downward_expansion": 20.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.178, 6.784545, 6.594476, 6.640624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.01, "trend_reference": 6.860333, "distance_from_trend": 0.167582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.400971, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.297428, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.885203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006281, "excess_performance": 0.049991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.167582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.297428, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173624, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068852, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241853, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006281, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.095132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9058496, "relative_activity": 5.094481, "balance": 5.095132, "dry_up": 2.386161, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104485, "annualized_volatility": 0.472806, "from_high_reference": -0.237143, "from_low_reference": 0.583004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.860333, "fair_value_reference": 11.400971, "structural_low": 5.06, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.036945, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.025823, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.145477, "worst_return": -0.177059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00847, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008848, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.092204, "worst_return": -0.258496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068558, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097633, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.371752, "worst_return": -0.325905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057543, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.26302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 5.399832, "worst_return": -0.288416, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085967, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027586, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053979, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214485, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.401716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065265, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.134545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036011, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12976, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.041049, "volume": 153940, "typical_volume": 1638854.0, "trend": 16.174036, "fair_value": 5.784695, "relative_strength": 4.033406, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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1551350.7, "trend": 6.95, "fair_value": 11.524008, "relative_strength": -19.36158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.226034, "energy": 43.925432, "activity_lines": [ 6.149333, 6.242, 6.329476, 6.554258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.96, "volume": 3499170, "typical_volume": 1525586.7, "trend": 6.909, "fair_value": 11.480814, "relative_strength": -4.279293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.101223, "energy": 11.566208, "activity_lines": [ 6.406, 6.358364, 6.378, 6.554903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.09, "volume": 3233596, "typical_volume": 1522841.8, "trend": 6.862333, "fair_value": 11.437944, "relative_strength": -4.768409, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.2229, "energy": 9.249887, "activity_lines": [ 6.670667, 6.491455, 6.442, 6.566581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.01, "volume": 9058496, "typical_volume": 1778099.7, "trend": 6.860333, "fair_value": 11.400971, "relative_strength": 6.885203, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.650478, "energy": 32.600112, "activity_lines": [ 7.178, 6.784545, 6.594476, 6.640624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }