{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24e1484d-d4b9-4fb9-b825-3c536458b35d", "symbol": "ZJAN", "name": "Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF 1 Yr January", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.718, "architecture_energy": 91.681, "architecture_maturity": 14.585, "architecture_confidence": 78.065, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.18, "rotation_up": 74.89, "upward_expansion": 98.38, "deceleration": 40.01, "rotation_down": 21.42, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.151613, 28.089575, 27.993283, 27.866828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 28.26, "trend_reference": 27.715887, "distance_from_trend": 0.019632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.829679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053311, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.192896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028553, "excess_performance": -0.097072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01009, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053311, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000188, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028553, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.055461, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24021, "relative_activity": 0.574449, "balance": 2.055461, "dry_up": 0.463397, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00348, "annualized_volatility": 0.02206, "from_high_reference": -0.000354, "from_low_reference": 0.064002 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.715887, "fair_value_reference": 26.829679, "structural_low": 27.13, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.005873, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01838, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.005873, "worst_return": 0.005873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 28.0053, "volume": 47882, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.095, "volume": 26644, "typical_volume": 52413.15, "trend": 27.611393, "fair_value": 26.76454, "relative_strength": -7.403564, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.610087, "energy": 80.687694, "activity_lines": [ 28.014627, 27.979011, 27.850476, 27.742318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.07, "volume": 12170, "typical_volume": 43823.45, "trend": 27.637727, "fair_value": 26.780657, "relative_strength": -5.818421, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.322121, "energy": 85.429069, "activity_lines": [ 28.040313, 28.000564, 27.88467, 27.771906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.06, "volume": 20657, "typical_volume": 43322.35, "trend": 27.662893, "fair_value": 26.796259, "relative_strength": -5.109307, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.60427, "energy": 83.066962, "activity_lines": [ 28.054, 28.016844, 27.915246, 27.799149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.1398, "volume": 20661, "typical_volume": 42547.15, "trend": 27.687887, "fair_value": 26.812446, "relative_strength": -5.630739, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.379552, "energy": 87.690849, "activity_lines": [ 28.08962, 28.04428, 27.950421, 27.829917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.26, "volume": 24021, "typical_volume": 41815.7, "trend": 27.715887, "fair_value": 26.829679, "relative_strength": -8.192896, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.718487, "energy": 91.680933, "activity_lines": [ 28.151613, 28.089575, 27.993283, 27.866828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }