{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24e3ca93-afc5-4f96-9994-63257f425774", "symbol": "CAG", "name": "Conagra Brands, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.009, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.148, "architecture_energy": 17.508, "architecture_maturity": 20.991, "architecture_confidence": 59.962, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.25, "rotation_up": 42.93, "upward_expansion": 35.65, "deceleration": 43.33, "rotation_down": 14.63, "downward_expansion": 41.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.619476, 14.290202, 14.045657, 14.470072 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.11, "trend_reference": 15.257073, "distance_from_trend": -0.00964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.475525, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.296408, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.686368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.200076, "excess_performance": -0.325701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.296408, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080419, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116247, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.200076, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.631616, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58484311, "relative_activity": 0.723992, "balance": 1.631616, "dry_up": 0.955369, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06581, "annualized_volatility": 0.330378, "from_high_reference": -0.238261, "from_low_reference": 0.205906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.257073, "fair_value_reference": 21.475525, "structural_low": 12.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.004952, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.014418, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.122893, "worst_return": -0.092699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031488, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.12118, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.196924, "worst_return": -0.201833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140679, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.277245, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213825, "worst_return": -0.298535, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.041978, "energy": 18.650708, "activity_lines": [ 14.182864, 13.913634, 13.917126, 14.536954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.51, "volume": 78100007, "typical_volume": 82701041.15, "trend": 15.294086, "fair_value": 21.547952, "relative_strength": -17.800871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.167716, "energy": 13.510899, "activity_lines": [ 14.320905, 14.056009, 13.949227, 14.481948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.11, "volume": 58484311, "typical_volume": 80780369.85, "trend": 15.257073, "fair_value": 21.475525, "relative_strength": -16.686368, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.148446, "energy": 17.508173, "activity_lines": [ 14.619476, 14.290202, 14.045657, 14.470072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }