{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24ea0818-7c7d-4f02-9191-ebdc12c7f5bb", "symbol": "MPAC", "name": "Mpac Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.28, "architecture_energy": 71.592, "architecture_maturity": 15.654, "architecture_confidence": 66.653, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.13, "rotation_up": 78.32, "upward_expansion": 68.25, "deceleration": 18.1, "rotation_down": 16.21, "downward_expansion": 24.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 322.566667, 304.472727, 282.457143, 282.356989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 327.5, "trend_reference": 292.233333, "distance_from_trend": 0.12068, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 365.503205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.103975, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.490607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114865, "excess_performance": -0.181143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.12068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042747, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.103975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191418, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004906, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272019, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114865, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.371506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 527858, "relative_activity": 1.349092, "balance": 13.371506, "dry_up": 2.474375, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078558, "annualized_volatility": 0.601904, "from_high_reference": -0.160256, "from_low_reference": 0.559524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 292.233333, "fair_value_reference": 365.503205, "structural_low": 210.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035294, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013811, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290598, "worst_return": -0.254098, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029412, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.487179, "worst_return": -0.259016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.151961, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.207141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.764103, "worst_return": -0.360656, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201068, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.256881, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", 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291.083333, "fair_value": 363.169872, "relative_strength": -5.994311, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.58581, "energy": 20.50272, "activity_lines": [ 277.166667, 265.681818, 260.619048, 273.98172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 325.0, "volume": 3132553, "typical_volume": 394246.8, "trend": 290.883333, "fair_value": 363.666667, "relative_strength": 0.924949, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.285029, "energy": 43.162063, "activity_lines": [ 297.833333, 277.454545, 266.083333, 276.169892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 317.0, "volume": 154499, "typical_volume": 395261.95, "trend": 291.066667, "fair_value": 364.208333, "relative_strength": -2.711503, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.042427, "energy": 63.543552, "activity_lines": [ 308.5, 286.5, 270.928571, 277.854839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 325.0, "volume": 57675, "typical_volume": 376389.35, "trend": 291.65, "fair_value": 364.842949, "relative_strength": -1.250387, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.962081, "energy": 68.121416, "activity_lines": [ 317.033333, 295.872727, 276.645238, 280.044086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 327.5, "volume": 527858, "typical_volume": 391268.95, "trend": 292.233333, "fair_value": 365.503205, "relative_strength": -0.490607, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.27966, "energy": 71.592464, "activity_lines": [ 322.566667, 304.472727, 282.457143, 282.356989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }