{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24ea0d27-2daf-4356-96e6-9e4e9e34765c", "symbol": "3030", "name": "Saudi Cement Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.643, "architecture_energy": 92.704, "architecture_maturity": 87.831, "architecture_confidence": 83.833, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 10.7, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 84.52, "downward_expansion": 99.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.854667, 29.513217, 30.355715, 31.068294 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 28.1, "trend_reference": 32.03685, "distance_from_trend": -0.122885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.680306, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.273532, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.193533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.182379, "excess_performance": -0.150549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.273532, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.28043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1085463, "relative_activity": 1.517489, "balance": 0.28043, "dry_up": 0.965574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03251, "annualized_volatility": 0.132467, "from_high_reference": -0.308227, "from_low_reference": 0.002855 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.03685, "fair_value_reference": 38.680306, "structural_low": 28.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.003766, "positive_rate": 0.432432, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": -0.009165, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.093357, "worst_return": -0.063545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.026107, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.02415, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.095153, "worst_return": -0.080858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.040434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068192, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.13762, "worst_return": -0.124557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -10.916306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.587863, "energy": 55.404083, "activity_lines": [ 30.286667, 30.476415, 31.211317, 31.784509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.559999, "volume": 528031, "typical_volume": 678986.8, "trend": 32.398476, "fair_value": 38.966644, "relative_strength": -12.393383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.031833, "energy": 69.810387, "activity_lines": [ 29.969333, 30.273665, 30.994013, 31.592008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.4, "volume": 628447, "typical_volume": 680786.35, "trend": 32.219081, "fair_value": 38.821343, "relative_strength": -13.752647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.660584, "energy": 87.070253, "activity_lines": [ 29.372, 29.896856, 30.678895, 31.334041 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.1, "volume": 1085463, "typical_volume": 715302.2, "trend": 32.03685, "fair_value": 38.680306, "relative_strength": -16.193533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.643224, "energy": 92.703886, "activity_lines": [ 28.854667, 29.513217, 30.355715, 31.068294 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }