{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "24effdfd-442f-4ad7-a750-4bef6ab368ae",
    "symbol": "XSKR",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Communication Services Screened UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 53.078,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -35.429,
    "architecture_energy": 22.403,
    "architecture_maturity": 30.969,
    "architecture_confidence": 84.24,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 43.48,
        "rotation_up": 27.34,
        "upward_expansion": 17.06,
        "deceleration": 42.81,
        "rotation_down": 34.19,
        "downward_expansion": 64.73
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 7716.0,
    "trend_reference": 7708.81666,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.000932,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7072.389298,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091003,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.439773,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.032932,
    "excess_performance": -0.018304,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.000932,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.005642,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091003,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006652,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084398,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022124,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.032932,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.662685,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2812,
      "relative_activity": 2.859031,
      "balance": 1.662685,
      "dry_up": 2.462,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026429,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.205801,
      "from_high_reference": -0.150943,
      "from_low_reference": 0.087603
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7708.81666,
      "fair_value_reference": 7072.389298,
      "structural_low": 7258.0,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.010387,
        "positive_rate": 0.5625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005162,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.100617,
        "worst_return": -0.055936,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
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        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.026346,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.05357,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "fair_value": 6881.152118,
        "relative_strength": -11.043499,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 6919.802759,
        "relative_strength": -10.652196,
        "stage": 4,
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 1000.5,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 6968.213016,
        "relative_strength": -8.349331,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "fair_value": 6981.652118,
        "relative_strength": -7.091088,
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 7016.033529,
        "relative_strength": -13.192673,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 7026.366862,
        "relative_strength": -10.632916,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 67.203762,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 935,
        "typical_volume": 1101.75,
        "trend": 7688.71666,
        "fair_value": 7037.142503,
        "relative_strength": -9.925516,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -35.783005,
        "energy": 64.128651,
        "activity_lines": [
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          7659.50714,
          7708.751607
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 7423.0,
        "volume": 2918,
        "typical_volume": 728.1,
        "trend": 7691.399993,
        "fair_value": 7047.007888,
        "relative_strength": -11.389329,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -37.437221,
        "energy": 61.605763,
        "activity_lines": [
          7430.0,
          7514.927273,
          7626.923808,
          7691.608597
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7519.5,
        "volume": 3021,
        "typical_volume": 844.6,
        "trend": 7696.599993,
        "fair_value": 7059.011093,
        "relative_strength": -10.88962,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.180609,
        "energy": 47.242708,
        "activity_lines": [
          7459.4,
          7496.663636,
          7608.138094,
          7680.518275
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7716.0,
        "volume": 2812,
        "typical_volume": 983.55,
        "trend": 7708.81666,
        "fair_value": 7072.389298,
        "relative_strength": -8.439773,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.428896,
        "energy": 22.403155,
        "activity_lines": [
          7553.433333,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}