{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24f132d1-7ab3-4d49-8187-b68933b0087c", "symbol": "JREZ", "name": "JPM Eurozone Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - EUR (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.08, "architecture_energy": 63.085, "architecture_maturity": 60.048, "architecture_confidence": 75.874, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 57.5, "upward_expansion": 83.55, "deceleration": 65.38, "rotation_down": 26.69, "downward_expansion": 10.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.852666, 45.641363, 44.748047, 43.923785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.869999, "trend_reference": 43.050667, "distance_from_trend": 0.088717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.567083, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317791, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.456118, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.107514, "excess_performance": -0.063378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088717, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317791, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072422, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024561, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02161, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.107514, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.244374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13426, "relative_activity": 0.623352, "balance": 4.244374, "dry_up": 1.159661, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021976, "annualized_volatility": 0.168559, "from_high_reference": -0.003402, "from_low_reference": 0.275721 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.050667, "fair_value_reference": 35.567083, "structural_low": 38.165001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.016731, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000728, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.054854, "worst_return": -0.072745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.011424, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.021719, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.099185, "worst_return": -0.011204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091316, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.027743, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.112589, "worst_return": 0.074957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.100484, "energy": 85.075277, "activity_lines": [ 45.570999, 44.959727, 43.761714, 43.144936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.709999, "volume": 14496, "typical_volume": 41023.45, "trend": 42.539167, "fair_value": 35.244808, "relative_strength": -3.852316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.241927, "energy": 67.234078, "activity_lines": [ 45.319999, 45.027818, 43.940619, 43.294634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.369999, "volume": 30292, "typical_volume": 39178.3, "trend": 42.713333, "fair_value": 35.345032, "relative_strength": -2.202685, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.026795, "energy": 57.001636, "activity_lines": [ 45.301999, 45.17809, 44.175809, 43.477269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.639999, "volume": 41695, "typical_volume": 40017.4, "trend": 42.875667, "fair_value": 35.452949, "relative_strength": -2.25859, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.80595, "energy": 51.903156, "activity_lines": [ 45.387999, 45.31709, 44.415381, 43.666086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.869999, "volume": 13426, "typical_volume": 21538.4, "trend": 43.050667, "fair_value": 35.567083, "relative_strength": -2.456118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.080297, "energy": 63.085183, "activity_lines": [ 45.852666, 45.641363, 44.748047, 43.923785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }