{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24f71033-d2ba-427b-9da6-733808a99146", "symbol": "HCM", "name": "HUTCHMED DRC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.348, "architecture_energy": 22.178, "architecture_maturity": 84.706, "architecture_confidence": 80.178, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.18, "rotation_up": 30.4, "upward_expansion": 23.45, "deceleration": 43.98, "rotation_down": 23.31, "downward_expansion": 57.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.523333, 11.221091, 11.607095, 12.259032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.51, "trend_reference": 13.152, "distance_from_trend": -0.048814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.741378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.507649, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.175889, "excess_performance": -0.363343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.175889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.619194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190774, "relative_activity": 0.866087, "balance": 0.619194, "dry_up": 1.01529, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074002, "annualized_volatility": 0.396601, "from_high_reference": -0.316393, "from_low_reference": 0.28045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.152, "fair_value_reference": 15.741378, "structural_low": 9.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008987, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.00944, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.309991, "worst_return": -0.40125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02602, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.013887, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.668172, "worst_return": -0.447761, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073616, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.109846, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.388929, "worst_return": -0.682585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.166471, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.323157, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.30266, "worst_return": -0.606234, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139089, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.080305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084723, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115552, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017711, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081686, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138451, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.22, "volume": 401317, "typical_volume": 581291.85, "trend": 14.585333, "fair_value": 23.197115, "relative_strength": -15.762968, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"energy": 43.661634, "activity_lines": [ 10.978, 10.910182, 11.734, 12.445828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.13, "volume": 209509, "typical_volume": 215555.5, "trend": 13.225667, "fair_value": 15.751763, "relative_strength": -28.095853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.441741, "energy": 41.910603, "activity_lines": [ 11.052667, 10.932364, 11.598048, 12.305204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.51, "volume": 190774, "typical_volume": 220271.1, "trend": 13.152, "fair_value": 15.741378, "relative_strength": -22.507649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.347578, "energy": 22.178461, "activity_lines": [ 11.523333, 11.221091, 11.607095, 12.259032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }