{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25013d28-a3d2-432c-941d-3aad4bc449fd", "symbol": "002210", "name": "Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.461, "architecture_energy": 49.965, "architecture_maturity": 74.074, "architecture_confidence": 95.071, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.9, "rotation_up": 24.45, "upward_expansion": 7.69, "deceleration": 54.62, "rotation_down": 53.48, "downward_expansion": 81.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.189333, 2.205091, 2.404143, 2.535376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.24, "trend_reference": 2.736667, "distance_from_trend": -0.181486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.39141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063314, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.140343, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288889, "excess_performance": -0.296289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.181486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163525, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063314, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.433335, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.321403, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 297049942, "relative_activity": 0.823994, "balance": 0.672124, "dry_up": 0.892689, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109547, "annualized_volatility": 0.459431, "from_high_reference": -0.530398, "from_low_reference": 0.103448 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.736667, "fair_value_reference": 2.39141, "structural_low": 2.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.004525, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.026161, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.246809, "worst_return": -0.272414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059314, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.069701, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.47541, "worst_return": -0.28022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.071913, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055592, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.114504, "worst_return": -0.295699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 355649525.8, "trend": 2.937333, "fair_value": 2.384808, "relative_strength": -39.703281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.401045, "energy": 79.500465, "activity_lines": [ 2.216, 2.406545, 2.574381, 2.713183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.08, "volume": 335679106, "typical_volume": 357726732.3, "trend": 2.884333, "fair_value": 2.386218, "relative_strength": -35.9107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.516247, "energy": 77.070663, "activity_lines": [ 2.155333, 2.313273, 2.515952, 2.657871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.13, "volume": 341530500, "typical_volume": 358621058.9, "trend": 2.832333, "fair_value": 2.388077, "relative_strength": -34.138111, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.915507, "energy": 57.906113, "activity_lines": [ 2.136667, 2.25, 2.467952, 2.609204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 312997272, "typical_volume": 360981962.55, "trend": 2.782, "fair_value": 2.390192, "relative_strength": -29.464351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.045034, "energy": 54.083158, "activity_lines": [ 2.165333, 2.221636, 2.433905, 2.570344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.24, "volume": 297049942, "typical_volume": 360499944.7, "trend": 2.736667, "fair_value": 2.39141, "relative_strength": -32.140343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.460589, "energy": 49.965174, "activity_lines": [ 2.189333, 2.205091, 2.404143, 2.535376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }