{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2504d930-91b1-483b-9e6c-115e2b3e37c3", "symbol": "KEI", "name": "Kolibri Global Energy Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.094, "architecture_energy": 20.822, "architecture_maturity": 26.535, "architecture_confidence": 43.187, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.49, "rotation_up": 47.3, "upward_expansion": 63.76, "deceleration": 63.53, "rotation_down": 17.32, "downward_expansion": 11.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.284667, 7.153091, 7.255429, 7.132516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.12, "trend_reference": 6.777, "distance_from_trend": 0.050612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.540897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.088536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.107057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.348485, "excess_performance": 0.228064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.088536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051071, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077198, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.348485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.969889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43600, "relative_activity": 0.414843, "balance": 0.969889, "dry_up": 0.686965, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106309, "annualized_volatility": 0.613097, "from_high_reference": -0.217582, "from_low_reference": 0.531183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.777, "fair_value_reference": 6.540897, "structural_low": 4.91, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.002066, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.005046, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.610329, "worst_return": -0.202773, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.118056, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.106607, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 1.6, "worst_return": -0.284229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.25, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.227622, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.713592, "worst_return": -0.43988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.670851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.552668, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.849515, "worst_return": -0.249499, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021687, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025532, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.718333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186373, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.172455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079853, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119647, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098765, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.44, "volume": 114100, "typical_volume": 119970.0, "trend": 5.634, "fair_value": 2.279679, "relative_strength": 19.686897, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.392414, "energy": 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advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.796773, "energy": 16.547634, "activity_lines": [ 6.8, 7.062364, 7.210714, 6.93729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.46, "volume": 43400, "typical_volume": 123270.0, "trend": 6.569, "fair_value": 6.517179, "relative_strength": -0.110013, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.418588, "energy": 14.8723, "activity_lines": [ 6.986667, 7.097818, 7.243857, 6.999613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.54, "volume": 139800, "typical_volume": 118630.0, "trend": 6.634, "fair_value": 6.526538, "relative_strength": 1.491748, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.438784, "energy": 17.603783, "activity_lines": [ 7.202, 7.140727, 7.273714, 7.062258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.3, "volume": 62000, "typical_volume": 111445.0, "trend": 6.697, "fair_value": 6.532051, "relative_strength": -0.476418, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.261535, "energy": 20.188698, "activity_lines": [ 7.300667, 7.155636, 7.27481, 7.105226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.12, "volume": 43600, "typical_volume": 105100.0, "trend": 6.777, "fair_value": 6.540897, "relative_strength": -5.107057, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.093896, "energy": 20.821553, "activity_lines": [ 7.284667, 7.153091, 7.255429, 7.132516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }