{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2506c3a9-e211-47bb-a187-be67f3c45c1d", "symbol": "TATASTEEL", "name": "Tata Steel Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.416, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.055, "architecture_energy": 53.789, "architecture_maturity": 11.421, "architecture_confidence": 74.603, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.0, "rotation_up": 12.22, "upward_expansion": 9.8, "deceleration": 42.9, "rotation_down": 64.91, "downward_expansion": 83.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 187.166001, 188.935856, 194.639242, 195.773803 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 187.550003, "trend_reference": 195.928829, "distance_from_trend": -0.042765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 154.618896, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212982, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.513502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028632, "excess_performance": 0.015077, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038917, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212982, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21571, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025135, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224205, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101236163, "relative_activity": 0.999244, "balance": 0.572752, "dry_up": 1.039327, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043886, "annualized_volatility": 0.246268, "from_high_reference": -0.146979, "from_low_reference": 0.250688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 195.928829, "fair_value_reference": 154.618896, "structural_low": 177.587644, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014137, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.038402, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.033014, "worst_return": -0.13806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074282, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.007202, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142308, "worst_return": -0.07406, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030326, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007615, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.273752, "worst_return": -0.08716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00381, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01072, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06756, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097816, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00893, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 108.684731, "volume": 123191463, "typical_volume": 152144736.5, "trend": 101.817903, "fair_value": 90.496833, "relative_strength": 1.998971, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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"trend": 194.587918, "fair_value": 153.195025, "relative_strength": 3.738413, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.152288, "energy": 56.951498, "activity_lines": [ 189.332669, 193.568054, 197.765932, 197.408324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 182.669998, "volume": 86149481, "typical_volume": 108954254.15, "trend": 195.153493, "fair_value": 153.640411, "relative_strength": 4.014863, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.627571, "energy": 64.757238, "activity_lines": [ 186.586, 190.849138, 196.324223, 196.639426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 189.690002, "volume": 103884397, "typical_volume": 105643064.65, "trend": 195.50367, "fair_value": 154.140423, "relative_strength": 4.825387, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.73511, "energy": 51.227007, "activity_lines": [ 187.265334, 189.948197, 195.60718, 196.286942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 187.550003, "volume": 101236163, "typical_volume": 101312707.7, "trend": 195.928829, "fair_value": 154.618896, "relative_strength": 2.513502, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.055045, "energy": 53.789217, "activity_lines": [ 187.166001, 188.935856, 194.639242, 195.773803 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }